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NYC LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FEBRUARY 2019
Good morning everyone. Bitter cold air has invaded the New York City area and will set up camp today and overnight. The wind will make it even more insulting, but there is light at the end of the tunnel as I've been talking about quick blasts of cold for about a month already.
Look for sun and clouds today and that sun will be meaningless. Highs will only be in the low to mid teens, and winds will howl up to 25mph sustained with gusts 40+; making wind chills very dangerous. If you have to go out, make sure there is no exposed skin and do not stay out for long.
Overnight, the winds continue, which will save us from extreme radiational cooling. It'll still be bitter cold though with lows in the upper single digits to low teens. Away from the City, low to mid single digits are possible.
For Tomorrow, we "climb" back up into the upper 20's to near 30, and it'll feel much more tolerable as the wind settles down. However, clouds increase overnight with our next system approaching Wednesday.
We find ourselves in a familiar situation for Wednesday as another system takes a snow-hostile path. However, depending on the timing of the start of precip, we could start things off with a brief period of snow before quickly changing to rain. The later things start, the slight chance of snow diminishes even more. Temps will rise quickly throughout the day as we go for mid 40's and rain.
Flash flood watches may be needed at some point as our front gets hung up over the area and a wave develops along it, keeping rain and "mild" temps in the forecast for Thursday. Depending on what side of the front we find ourselves on for Thursday, we could see some near 50 temps. If not, look for a cold rain and mid 40's.
On Friday, we cool off again for our "rinse and repeat" process with temps returning to dead-average in the mid 30's. A reinforcing shot of cold air will bring things below average again for Saturday, with sunny skies and mid to upper 20's.
Some outlets have the chance of snow in the forecast for Sunday, but I think this just represents one in a series of weak reinforcing shots of cold air. I wouldn't get too excited about it.
In the long range, those reinforcing shots of cold air look to be forced north due to a strong ridge in the Atlantic; kind of like a pseudo Bermuda high.
Two things can happen here, that ridge could collapse and the bitter cold air snaps back in a very big and long-lasting way. Or the ridge holds to give us a very mild and rainy start to February before it collapses, then bitter cold works back in again for the 2nd week of the month.
Either way, I don't think we're done here with the very cold weather for February and what you see in the long range models could actually represent something very big brewing system-wise if we introduce this kind of mild air into the mix.
Stay tuned as we watch all the pieces of the puzzle.
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
Posted from my blog with SteemPress : https://www.nycweathernow.com/nyc-long-range-outlook-february-2019/