As Hurricane Michael barrels through the Gulf of Mexico, it is bearing down on one of Florida’s poorest and most vulnerable regions, with limited infrastructure and little coastal protection.
Hurricane models predict that Michael will make landfall as a major hurricane with winds up to 120 mph on Wednesday afternoon near Panama City, with the deadliest eastern mass of the storm curving through some of the Florida Panhandle’s poorest communities.
Forecasters predict storm surge as high as 12 feet from Panama City east in the state's Big Bend region, which hasn't seen a Category 3 storm like Michael since Hurricane Eloise in 1975. Mandatory evacuations already are underway in parts of Bay County, where Panama City is located, and into the Big Bend, including Gulf and Franklin counties.
Storm surge is the biggest concern for coastal residents. The majority of the Panhandle and Big Bend regions are under both hurricane and storm surge warnings.
Some areas in the Panhandle, like Destin and Panama City, have dense development behind the beachfront homes, condos and hotels, and there are bays and inlets that can easily dump into nearby neighborhoods.
Retired Franklin County administrator Alan Pierce said there is one highway — U.S. 98 — running east and west through his community.
And guess what, most of that is within 100 feet of the coast,” Pierce said.
If storm surge washes away a section of that highway, it could cut the county in half, making it difficult for emergency responders to reach residents in need, and nearly impossible to run school buses, Pierce said. The nearest detour is about 30 miles north, he said.
The Alligator Point community in Franklin County, which has retreated from the coast for more than a decade from ongoing erosion, could lose several homes if hit hard.
Beaches serve as a magnet for tourists who flock to Florida, but they also provide a necessary buffer to protect upland structures from storm surge. Alligator Point residents rejected a plan to pay for beach renourishment in 2007.
To the west, Cape San Blas in Gulf County is in a similar bind. For years the county has been planning a beach renourishment project for Cape San Blas, a tourist destination and economic driver for the community, but also one of the state’s fastest-eroding beaches.