In the second chapter of The Next Fifty years in Space, in which Patrick Moore hazarded some guesses concerning the future of satellite technology, he limited his predictions to the following fifteen years. In the third chapter he places the same restriction on his predictions concerning two emergent technologies: space shuttles and space stations. By 1975 both the Soviet Union and the United States had launched several manned space stations into low-earth orbits―Salyut 1, Skylab, Salyut 3, and Salyut 4―but the space shuttle was still in the early stages of its development.
Moore opens the chapter by looking back at one of the iconic moments in the space race: the docking of a Soviet Soyuz craft with an American Apollo module in July 1975. He concludes this account with his first look into the future:
Despite its supreme importance, the link-up was not a prolonged affair, and it was only one more step on the road toward a space-station far more elaborate than either Salyut or Skylab. Bear in mind, too, that neither of these early stations had more than a limited useful life. Skylab accommodated three crews in succession, each of three astronauts, and after the departure of the last team (Carr, Gibson and Pogue) in the spring of 1974 it was abandoned; it remains in orbit, but unless plans are made to preserve it or to salvage it the station will eventually fall back into the atmosphere and will be destroyed. A full-scale space-station, on the other hand, will be permanent. ―Moore 39
Skylab’s fall to Earth in 1979 captured the public imagination and became a major media event. Most of the craft burned up in the atmosphere during reentry, but some debris landed about 500 km east of Perth in Western Australia. Moore’s other prediction―a permanent space station―has yet to be fulfilled. The International Space Station was designed with a fifteen-year mission in mind. Its demise has been repeatedly postponed due to its continued success, but plans are afoot to de-orbit the vehicle in 2031.
Turning to the Space Shuttle, Moore predicted that this new type of craft would be ready for testing by 1978 and should be fully operational by the early 1980s. Testing of the first shuttle, Enterprise, actually began in February 1977, and the first orbital launch of Columbia took place in April 1981. In November 1982, after four test flights, the first operational flight of Columbia took place. Moore was also on the money when he predicted that the Space Shuttle would be able to carry passengers who were not trained astronauts. He was not so accurate, however, when he predicted that the program would cut the cost of a launch by 90% and that each flight would cost a great many thousands of pounds (Moore 39, 41):
The Space Shuttle was not cost-effective and failed to achieve its goals of affordable, frequent space access, ultimately costing over $200 billion (in 2010 dollars) for 135 missions. Instead of the projected ~$20 million per launch, missions averaged roughly $450 million to over $1.5 billion, making it significantly more expensive than modern commercial alternatives. ―Google AI
Moore was not willing to commit himself on the question of a Soviet Shuttle or an international version:
The Russians have not announced any similar design studies, but there is no reason to doubt that something of the same kind is very much in their minds. Whether or not there will be a combined USA-USSR Shuttle programme remains to be seen―probably the results of the space-link experiment will be important here―but at all events it is not likely that any space-station will be a practicable proposition without a recoverable ferry for journeys to and from the ground. ―Moore 40
As it turned out, the Russians did have a shuttle program: The Reusable Space System Buran, which ran from 1976 until 1993. Twenty-four suborbital test flights took place between November 1985 and April 1988, but the only orbital launch was an unmanned flight of Buran in November 1988. Several missions were planed for the following years, but all were cancelled. The Buran program was scrapped shortly after the dissolution of the USSR. Buran was destroyed in May 2002 when the hangar in Baikonur in which it was being stored collapsed.
Moore correctly predicted that the Space Shuttle would play a role in the assembly of space stations in the 1990s, though that role was never as vital as he expected:
How many space-stations will be in orbit by 1990? I suspect that there will be at least two, and probably three, though this depends very much upon the success of the Shuttle and upon the overall international situation. As the stations move across the sky they will become as familiar as aircraft are today ... The profession of ‘‘astronaut’’ will become less exclusive than it is at present, when the first qualification is that a candidate must be either a Russian or an American. Finally, there is no reason to suppose that space-station crews will be exclusively masculine. ―Moore 40
It took a little longer than than he anticipated, but for the most part Moore’s predictions have been borne out by the facts. In 1990 there were actually two space stations, though both were Russian: Salyut 7 and Mir. The assembly of the_International Space Station_ only began in November 1998. The profession of astronaut has become less exclusive than it was, and women are now regularly selected for space missions.
But Moore would certainly be disappointed by the lack of progress which these impressive beginnings forecast. Even in 2026 one could hardly say that space stations have become as familiar as aircraft. And they are still much smaller than the stations he envisaged:
There must be psychological problems, too. With a space-station containing several dozens of people these problems will be lessened, because everyone will belong to what is virtually a self-contained colony, but there must be ample provision for recreation, together with as much privacy as is possible.
As time goes by, the space-stations will become more and more firmly established, and by 2025, the end of the period I have set out to discuss here, people in general will be hard pressed to remember a time when they did not exist. Moreover, they will have a major role to play in preparations for sending men to Mars; they will, in fact, be regarded as marking the Earth’s true frontier. ―Moore 41–42
Sometimes, when relief crews were sent to the ISS to replace the current crew, the number of astronauts on board the station was as high as 17. And the current record for the most number of people in space at the same time is only 19, set in September 2024―but only if we add the crews of three different missions (the ISS, the SpaceX Polaris Dawn mission, and China’s Tiangong space station). We are nowhere near the stage of having colonies in orbit.
Moore rounds off this chapter with a hopeful sentiment, and a prediction which probably was fulfilled:
It is more than likely that some of the younger readers of this book will themselves become members of space-station crews. If so, I hope they will cast their minds back to what I have said―and, if I am still alive, let me know how right or how wrong my forecasts proved to be! ―Moore 42
And that’s a good a place to stop before the next stage of our journey.
References
- Patrick Moore, The Next Fifty Years in Space, With Drawings by Andrew Farmer, William Luscombe Publisher Limited, The Mitchell Beazley Group, Artists House, London (1976)
Image Credits
- The Next Fifty Years in Space: William Luscombe publisher Limited, Andrew Farmer (illustrator), foyled-again (photographer), Fair Use
- Space Station Mir: The Mir Space Station viewed from Space Shuttle Endeavour, NASA, Public Domain
- Space Shuttle Columbia: First Launch of Columbia, 12 April 1981, NASA, Public Domain
- The International Space Station: ISS, 8 November 2021, NASA, Public Domain
- Patrick Moore: Anonymous Photograph, Fair Use