Is al-Baghdadi really dead?

Is al-Baghdadi really dead? Trump announced that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the notorious leader of ISIS, has been killed, giving blow against the terrorist organization. Trump also said the person likely to be first in line to replace the slain leader has also been "terminated." Here’s how U.S. forces tracked down Baghdadi.

The recent U.S. withdrawal from Syria had a significant impact on the planning of Baghdadi operation. A senior SDF commander claimed their source also played a vital role in tracking down Baghdadi before an operation by U.S. special forces in Syria. Baghdadi killed himself with a suicide vest in a raid and then buried at sea. Trump said DNA test results carried out on the remains "gave certain, immediate and totally positive identification" that it was Baghdadi.

News of Baghdadi's death has stirred a mix of responses - from joy to disbelief to dread. Conspiracy theories are swirling. There have been no "body" photos that have appeared to confirm. A spy for Kurdish forces in Syria stole Baghdadi's underwear to obtain a DNA sample for the Baghdadi DNA test.

Baghdadi has been a feared ISIS leader because of many people's belief that he held a unique role in Islam. Baghdadi, was a self-proclaimed caliph (chief Muslim civil and religious ruler, regarded as the successor of Muhammad), claims to be a descendant of Muhammad. Most Sunni Muslims believe only a descendant from Muhammad’s tribe can be caliph - see inset chart.

So News Forecasters puts on its tinfoil hat and asks the question, do you trust this story ... the Kurdish spook? Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj.-Gen. Igor Konashenkov said that Russia does not have “reliable” data about the claim from Trump about Baghdadi's death. For sure people in the region also have doubts. Intelligence services over the years have a poor reputation in terms of credibility. There have been so many intelligence misfires on claims in the past.

Baghdadi was in U.S. custody in Iraq in 2004 and in a prison camp. The U.S. at any one time held 25,000 Iraqi young men in camps resisting the U.S. military occupation. People in the Muslim world, in urbane cities like Cairo and Beirut, laughed at his pretensions, calling Baghdadi the "Rolex Caliph" after he showed up in the pulpit sporting pricey bling. Some believe that Baghdadi was a product of both U.S. policy blunders and/or Intelligent Agency design.

The late U.S. Senator John McCain had visited Syria to meet rebels in the war-torn country. His goal was to fund and supply various dubious groups to fight terrorists, who may have been terrorists themselves. Take a look at the feature photo of this article - are these photos that were taken of the same man (Baghdadi)? Here are even more photos.

Something News Forecasters had always wondered was, where did ISIS get all their military equipment anyway - see inset chart. The story we were always told was that ISIS stole them, irresponsible arms transfers to Iraq, and/or coupled with the failure to install oversight mechanisms during the U.S. led occupation after 2003. The volume of arms and the money generated from this activity does make one wonder.

Bringing the story back to the time period of Baghdadi's death, curios events occurred in Israel. Israeli embassies around the world had been forced to close after a decision by the Finance Ministry to breach understandings over employee disagreements. Perhaps just a coincidence, but they may have been tipped off about the raid and feared revenge attacks.

In any case, one person that was not informed was U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - Democrats were furious. Trump said that she and the House intelligence committee could not be trusted - leakers. Some people agree with Trump considering all the recent Washington leaks - military lives would be at stake. Was Trump petty, or did Trump have reason to worry?

It is one thing not sharing information because of petty politics. It's another if you believe sitting members of Congress would compromise national security - to foil any Trump successes or worse yet even helping terrorists for some deepstate operational reasons.

There is a conspiracy theory that the deepstate has been for years elongating Middle East wars for profit and/or defanging the U.S. global power. Foreign governments or deepstate actors may be involved that have compromised many members of Congress to achieve these goals - sexual improprieties or financial corruption. Speaker Pelosi and Congressman Adam Schiff made a trip to Jordan just before the Baghdadi raid and the day after to Afghanistan. For WHAT reason? We know that the location of Baghdadi was detected while Pelosi and Schiff were in the Middle East.

Finally, Trump did indicate that during the Baghdadi raid (killed or not), U.S. Intelligence found a lot of useful and interesting intelligence. In this conspiracy Tweet, it suggests they found intelligence communications from the U.S. State Department from 2010-2011 in the Baghdadi compound - you guessed it, while Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State in the Obama administration. If true, how could this be? Did someone know more than we have been told? Or flip it, perhaps incriminating evidence was planted by Trump to take down his deepstate foes.

How much of all this is true? There is a lot of dots to connect in this story. The point is News Forecasters can't say for sure, and most likely, neither can you. What we can say is: a) deepstate games are being played, b) it will be virtually impossible to know the truth, and c) confidence in Intelligence Agencies and governments plummet. The public will pick and choose what to believe to satisfying one's political biases - worse yet, the media will just tell us what to believe. Going forward, this paints a very dark future for western democracies.