The Chalk
The Yankees easily have the highest implied run total in Vegas tonight with an implied total over six runs. Houston has the nearest implied total at only 5.28. The Yanks will be in Baltimore with Andrew Cashner on the hill for the O’s. Cashner has an ERA over 5.00 and an xFIP that isn’t much better at 4.82. He also has the third lowest soft contact rate generated among today’s probable starters.
New York’s big three are all obviously in play anytime the Yanks have a good matchup, but there are several other Yankees in play, which means you don’t have to roster all three studs for this stack to work. Miguel Andujar has a 136 wRC+ against same-handed pitching since the start of last season. Brett Gardner has hits in five of his last six including three multi-hit games and three home runs. Didi Gregorius is also coming out his slump going five for his last 13.
Rain is an issue in Baltimore tonight, and that’s the game with the highest chance of a postponement. If that game gets rained out, the chalk probably shifts to Houston, who is the only other team with an implied run total over five innings. They’ll host the Red Sox with Drew Pomeranz on the mound, and the Astros rank third in the league against left-handed pitching per wRC+. The top of their order, George Springer , Alex Bregman , José Altuve and Carlos Correa , provides their best hitters against lefties, and they should be popular plays tonight.
Not the Chalk
Even if the Baltimore-New York game gets rained out, the Chicago Cubs still won’t have one of the four highest implied run totals of what would be an eight-game slate at that point. They’re in New York taking on the Mets with Seth Lugo on the hill. Lugo has been having a fine season out of the bullpen, but this will be his first start of the year. The Mets rank bottom 10 in bullpen ERA, and the Cubs could see plenty of that bullpen with Lugo not being stretched out. Lugo has modest reverse splits for his career, so you don’t have to shy away from Chicago’s right-handed hitters.
Chicago has a whopping 10 hitters who have been above average against right-handed pitching since the start of last season, so there should be plenty of ways to stack Cubs tonight, no matter what their lineup card ends up looking like. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are the obvious names and have the best numbers against right-handers among Cubs. Javier Báez is another top name to consider in that stack with five multi-hit games in his last nine and three home runs in that stretch.
If you want to get even more contrarian than the Cubs, the Padres could be an option for you. As of this writing they have an implied total under four runs against Wei-Yin Chen and the Marlins. Among today’s probable starters, Chen has the lowest strikeout rate, the lowest soft contact rate generated and the highest xFIP. Sure, the Padres aren’t the most intimidating lineup, but this is about as good as a matchup can be for a lineup today.
Dating back to last season, San Diego’s best hitters against left-handed pitching have been José Pirela and Hunter Renfroe . They should be the base of a Padre stack assuming they’re both in the lineup and reasonably near each other in the order. Right-handers Christian Villanueva and Franmil Reyes are also options as they each have four home runs over the last 15 days. And lefty Eric Hosmer doesn’t have to be excluded from the stack. He has fared well against Chen going 7-for-23 with two home runs against him in his career.