Perception is everything, but more often than not, it's deceiving and it leads people into making blank statements without properly analyzing the facts, the subject I'm about to address, really represents that well.
We are in 2018, and the consensus around the MLB community is that we've moved past the point of using a pitcher's win as an accurate measurement of their performance. While for the most part that is true, when you look at the data, it becomes clear that part of that is perception.
I decided to go back to the beginning of the decade (2010-18), at all the Cy Young winners for both leagues since, and analyze if the most deserving pitcher actually won it and if he didn't, did their win-loss record have anything to do with it.
Obviously looking back at the winners of the 20th century would not be fair, as it wasn't until the early 2000's with the Moneyball revolution and all of the sabermetricians that this really took off and people started acknowledging it.
So let's begin.
2010 Cy Young Award Winners.
AL: Felix Hernandez
NL: Roy Halladay
Nothing major here, analyzing that year, in the AL, Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander and "The King" were all very close, but Hernandez probably the better candidate, significantly more innings, the better ERA, ERA-, xFIP, and neither won 20 games, Hernandez and Lee at 12, Verlander at 18.
Over to the National League, Roy Halladay won the award getting every single first-place vote, and it's understandable.
He had a 21-10 record, 2.44 ERA, 250.2 IP, highest FG WAR among NL pitchers at 6.1, highest BR WAR overall at 8.6
Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez had very good seasons, but ultimately fell short, Johnson pitched almost 70 fewer innings, Jimenez close to 30 fewer innings.
2011 Cy Young Award Winners:
AL: Justin Verlander
NL: Clayton Kershaw
In this particular season both pitchers won the Triple Crown, and while Verlander was clearly the deserving pitcher in the AL, on the other league things were interesting, or at least should've been.
In the NL, Kershaw was awesome but Halladay was just as awesome, and the Triple Crown gave number 22 the edge, a big part of it, is the wins.
Analyze their seasons.
ERA:
Kershaw: 2.28. Halladay: 2.35
K-BB%:
Kershaw: 21.3. Halladay: 19.8
FIP:
Kershaw: 2.47. Halladay: 2.20
WPA/LI (Wins Probability Added/Leverage Index)
Kershaw: 4.21. Halladay: 3.82
FG and BR WAR respectively:
Kershaw: 7.1 and 8.9 Halladay: 8.3 and 8.6
Overall very close, and had Halladay finished with 21 wins and Kershaw with 19, no Triple Crown and i'm pretty sure Halladay wins it, just based on the 20+ wins, if voted by a complete sabermetric community, it'd be very close, my guess Halladay wins it by a vote or so, with this we found our first wins related winner, but honestly it's a coin flip.
2012 Cy Young Award Winners:
AL: David Price
NL: R.A. Dickey
This year is very interesting as neither winner was the deserving one and it's clear both won solely on the 20 win nonsense.
First let's go through the AL, where Price edged out Verlander by one vote, 14 to 13.
Look at the numbers, Justin Verlander led him in:
IP: 238.1 to 211.0
K-BB%: 18.7 to 17.5
AVG: .215 to .224
FIP: 2.94 to 3.05
BR WAR: 7.8 to 6.9
FG WAR: 6.8 to 5.0
In all fairness, Price had a slightly better ERA, 2.56 to 2.64, but that's a very slim difference, 0.08 run per 9 Inning, how much does that matter.
The reason why Price won it, was that he had a 20-5 record and Verlander a 17-8, if it's the other way around, Verlander wins it, unquestionably.
Moving on the NL, it's the same story, Dickey won the award, because he had 20 wins, even while Kershaw led the NL in
Both WAR versions, FG and BR
ERA, ERA-, WPA/LI, RE24 (Run Expectancy)
RA9-WAR
2nd in FIP and AVG to Gio Gonzalez
And Dickey got 27 first-place votes.
Unlike the 2011 situation in the Nl, that's very debatable, in 2012, the pitchers that should've won were Kershaw and Verlander.
2013 Cy Young Award Winner:
AL: Max Scherzer
NL: Clayton Kershaw
Part of the reason why Scherzer won was the 21 wins, but it's acceptable, in part because the other 2 who had a case were Anibal Sanchez and Hisashi Iwakuma, with Iwakuma i don't even consider, yes he was better at run prevention, but he got pretty lucky, 3.44 FIP, hence only a 3.9 FG's WAR.
Now with Sanchez, you can make a case but he only pitched 182 Innings, and his ERA and FIP were only slightly better, and his K-BB% was worse, to overtake someone with much more IP, you have to be significantly better across the board.
In the NL, Kershaw was the only candidate, should've won it, and did, nothing to say.
2014 Cy Young Award Winner:
AL: Corey Kluber
NL: Clayton Kershaw
In the AL very close two-horse race, between Kluber and Hernandez, it could've gone either way, neither pitcher reached that 20 win number so i can't point to that, but overall Kluber was slightly better and deserved the award.
In the NL one of the all-time great seasons by Kershaw, won the MVP, nothing to say.
I'll continue this tomorrow with part 2, analyzing the Cy Young's from 15-17 and seeing where the wins affected the votes.
Rick Porcello anyone.
Looking at the winners from 10-14 we found 2 awards that the winner won almost solely on the fact he reached that 20 win plateau unlike the pitchers that should've won in such seasons, both in 2012, coincidentally, and another season when in 2011 over in the NL, Halladay, and Kershaw had magnificent years and the tie breaker was the win total, Kershaw 21, Halladay 19, giving Kershaw the Triple Crown and ultimately the award, either one could have won it and had their record gone the other way around, Halladay very likely wins it.
While you go to bed tonight, consider this, despite everything that the sabermetric's community has accomplished in this last decade or so, 3 Cy Young winners during a 5 year span from 2010-14, were determined by a pitcher's win-loss record, more accurately the fact that they all reached 20 wins, and more so have happened since, in the 15-17 period, ones that i'll address tomorrow.
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