Hi everyone, my first article on FanGraphs, very exciting stuff, so let's get into it, today i want to talk about the 2 versions of pitchers WAR, BR, and FG, while both sites use very similar formulas there is one big difference, FG uses FIP, BR uses ERA. That alone changes everything, before I make my point, a quick rundown of what is WAR.
WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement, which basically means, that number is the amount of wins that player provides you in relation to the number of wins you wouldd get from a replacement level AAAA player, when considering that, you cannot tell me it is plausible to use a stat (FIP) that isolates runs from the long ball and completely disregards every other run scored, when in the game a wild pitch with a runner on 3rd base scoring and a solo shot means the same, any average Joe knows the responsibility of a pitcher on the long ball is far bigger than on a wild pitch, sac fly, single that could have been caught, but that doesn't matter when counting for a stat that measures added value.
Let me give you an example, more people every year are turning towards WAR when talking about awards, and even some voters also, which is fine but not fine when looking at a FIP based version, you just cannot do it. I will give you an example, I am going to compare two pitchers and their numbers this year.
First One
K,% 24.2. BB% 3.8. K-BB% 20.4
AVG .252. BABIP .303. LOB% 67.5
ERA 4.42 FIP 3.61 HR/FB 13.8%
FG WAR 3.8
Second One
K% 22.7. BB% 9.6. K/BB% 13.2
AVG .213. BABIP .258. LOB% 81.6
ERA 2.96 FIP 3.93. HR/FB 11.1 %
FG WAR 3.3
The takeaway from this is easy, for two talented pitchers, one got really unlucky, the second one got very lucky, and if you had to take the over/under on either one of those you would take the first pitcher to bounce back and the second one to decline some, it does not take a genius to know who added more value/wins to his team, not even close, despite the fact that the first pitcher had a higher WAR, with only 6.2 more innings, 207.2 to 201, both started 32 games.
The first one is Jeff Samardzija and the second one Gio Gonzalez, Gio finished sixth on the Cy Young vote, Jeff was a huge disappointment and looking at the BR's WAR version you see Gonzalez at 6.6, and Samardzija at 2.4, I could give you other examples but it would be redundant.
While I know FG version of WAR has some qualities it goes against what WAR was designed to represent.
Bottom line is: Luck affects results, results determine added value, WAR is added value, therefore Luck must affect WAR, and FIP eliminates luck