The Toronto Blue Jays are flying under the radar, making small additions that might just take them back to the playoffs.
Ok let's not get ahead of ourselves, clearly, they still need work, as of today no one will argue they should be higher than third on their division depth chart of quality.
In this offseason they've traded for infield depth, acquiring Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz giving up very little, both should get playing time in 2018.
This is a team that made the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016 and entered this year with virtually the same core, obviously, Edwin was gone, but the interesting thing is Justin Smoak on a breakout year basically replaced 80-95% of Encarnacion's production, so well, what happened?
All that could've went wrong, did so.
Josh was terrific, but missed 49 games, Aaton Sanchez pitched 36 Innings, lingering issues, Devon Travis played 50 games, Russel Martin 91, Troy was really bad on half the year, the other half he was injured, Kendrys Morales was awful as was Darwin Barney and Roberto Osuna managed to get a 3.38 ERA with a 1.74 FIP, how? Who knows, 59.5 LOB%, obviously does not help.
But here is why Blue Jays fans should be optimisc about their squad, for starters, they have 3 prospects amongst the top 45 in baseball according to MLB.com
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 4th
Bo Bichette 26th
Anthony Alford 44th
Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna form a very talented young trio on your pitching staff, Estrada and Happ provide quality innings to your rotation, and Zips projections have Aaron Loup. Dominic Leone and Ryan Tepera as quality relievers, a backend starter wouldn't hurt, but i like the staff to some degree.
On to the hitting side.
Russel Martin should provide stability at catcher, given his age, you shouldn't expect more than 120 games, but in limited playing time he should give you a 2 win season or something around that.
On the corner infield spots, you have a strength especially if Smoak's breakout year is for real, between him and the superb Josh Donaldson you get tons of value.
Moving up the middle, four guys should get the majority of playing time, who all have experienced success in the majors, Devon Travis, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz and Troy Tulowitzki i am aware they have Barney, but i would play these four before him, for instance, they combined for 11 WAR in 2016, coincidentally all had off years in 2017, it would not be a stretch to predict some level of bounceback from them.
In Centerfield, at this point is well estabilished that Kevin Pillar is what he is, a glove first outfielder with below average hitting skills but who should get 600 PA because he will give you 2-4 WAR, adding good value.
The corner OF and DH are points of concerns.
Kendrys Morales was really bad his first year, but he is set to make 11 mil this year and the next, so you are stuck with him, signing an aging DH, with a declining bat is not a good idea.
Between Teoscar Hernandez, Ezequiel Carrera, Dwight Smith and other AAAA outfielders you don't really know what you are going to get, which is part of the reason, there have been reports regarding the Jays pursuit of OF, whether is an interest on trading for Yelich or signing JD, Lorenzo Cain, moving him to LF, who knows the point is they need help there.
Given Toronto's situation, they should pursue Michael Saunders, Seth Smith, Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Gomez, players of that nature on a 2-year deal max, why?
Dismissing the fact that Jay Bruce, JD and other high profile names are not exactly smart investments, the Jays are at a crossroad, this is a talented team, with nice assets, Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Donaldson and others.
But in a division with the Red Sox and Yankees, it will be tough to compete and factoring in a thin roster that lacks depth in talent, they'll need a few breaks, which sometimes you just don't get, Toronto could very well reach mid-July out of the race and looking to trade FA to be Josh Donaldson, and at that point you don't want to be stuck paying Jay 75 mil over the next 4 year.
Flexibility is key.
Even if it all goes wrong and the front office realizes they need to rebuild, this is a talented farm system, a team with a significant revenue, and multiple big league assets that could net them nice hauls, the future is bright, there is not a lot of money in the books in the coming years, only Tulo has guaranteed money past 2020, 18 mil split between 14 in 2020 and a 4 mil buyout on a 15 mil team option.
To sum it up.
Good/best case scenario, this team could easily with a couple of breaks make the playoffs.
Bad/worst case scenario, there is enough surplus value both on the major league roster and the farm system, along with future finnancial flexibility and a significant revenue that this team can do a quick turnaround and compete in the forseeable future.
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See you tomorrow.