Bets on sports without preliminary analysis and forecasting the outcome, perhaps, is the strangest decision of players in betting shops. In order to get a positive result on a long run, you must predict the outcome of the meeting, and only then decide whether to bet on it or not. In this article we will share practical advice, tell you how to properly analyze information and make predictions for matches, as well as give advice on where to bet.
Forecasting sports matches is not an easy job. The very making up of a forecast is a continuous analysis. In addition to the fact that you will need to process a huge flow of information, you still need to be able to sort it by importance, as well as "lay out on the shelves." This is comparable to a large library. You brought a huge number of books, you have to sort by genre, author, significance (after all, uninteresting works can be taken away), or by some other signs and parameters, put everything on racks, and when you are asked to issue a book, in a few seconds you need to figure out where it lies. So with forecasting, first you read and get information, and then at any time you will have to pull it out of your head and apply it wisely. Such information can be statistics, injuries, statements of coaches and players, the tasks of the teams for the season and for a specific match, motivation and many others.
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Choice of sport and league for forecasting
First of all, you must choose a sport in which you are well versed. If you love football and hockey, you know the players, the teams, the various subtleties of these sports (and if you do not know anything, then why do not you put it), then there is no point in climbing, for example, in tennis or basketball. Of course, it's best to specialize in one sport, but to predict two, in principle, is uncritical. In addition, you need to weed out those leagues and championships that you do not know. For example, if you are predicting football matches, then you need to choose top leagues (Premier League, Bundesliga, Premier League, Primera, etc.), and not climb into the third division of Zimbabwe or the fourth league of Germany. Forecasting hockey matches - choose the KHL and NHL, predicting basketball - choose the NBA, etc. Most importantly - do not jump from one sport to another, and do not break into several championships. If you are experiencing difficulties and feel that, frankly speaking, do not drag on several sports, championships, leagues, then reduce their number.
Prognostication consists of four phases:
Collecting all kinds of information;
Processing and sorting information;
Analysis and drafting of the preliminary forecast;
Drafting the outcome of the match
Gathering information about the match
Statistics
At the first stage you need to collect all the information necessary for the forecasting of the match. First of all, study the statistics. Do not forget to divide all indicators into exit, home and general.
The most important indicators are:
recent team meetings;
the last full-time meetings of rivals;
tournament position;
average goals scored for the match;
the average value of the conceded goals for the match;
average goals scored in the last five matches;
the average value of the conceded goals for the last five matches.
Thanks to the statistics of the last meetings you can determine the current form of the team (players), scored / missed - from the same opera, only you can learn more about the indicators on any segments of the season. On the history of confrontations can determine a number of indicators, for example, the effectiveness of teams in the game among themselves, how often opponents hit each other's gates, etc. According to the tournament position of the team you can determine the overall index of the game form (for a certain number of matches or for the whole season), as well as learn about the motivation and tasks of the team for the next game.
Compositions
Usually the teams are known within an hour and a half before the beginning of the meeting, but according to the information on injuries you can have an approximate idea of the composition of the teams for the upcoming match. You can also compare the compositions, say, for the last three matches of the team.
Series
Allocate different series: consecutive wins, consecutive defeats, goals scored in a row, missed balls in a row, dry meetings and meetings on "both score". These are the most important indicators in forecasting.
news
Read the press, special attention should be given to interesting facts, rather than the statements of players and coaches. An example of an interesting fact: "Locomotive" on a visit to "CSKA" can not win in ten matches in a row. Here immediately there is an interesting fact, both statistics and series, in this case without victories. Such information should always be noticed, processed and applied.
Motivation
One of the most important factors is motivation. You must unerringly find any motivational components. For example, the last round of the group stage of the Champions League is taking place. Madrid "Real" takes the third line in the group, behind the Mönchengladbach "Borussia", which is the second, two points. The next match at the "Real" just with "Borussia", and on the "Santiago Bernabeu". Obviously, the "Royal Club" sets a goal of reaching the Champions League play-off, and not getting into the Europa League, so the team will go to the match, which will also be home, with special emotions.
Revenge
The thirst for revenge is another of the most important factors that can directly affect the outcome of the match (in the case of roughly equal rivals). It is not uncommon for a situation when, after a major home defeat, the team is eager to be rehabilitated in front of their fans. Missed advantages and defeats in the last seconds, defeats in overtime, in shootouts, defeat due to a goal that is counted against the rules, defeat in the derby - all these situations give rise to the desire to take revenge against the opponent.
Derby
Separately, you need to touch the teams derby. Derby - match between teams from one city or region. For such matches, opponents usually go beyond motivated, because the victory in the derby is doubly sweet, in addition, it often promises good bonuses.
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