These posts will break down some of the personal stats I'm keeping from the first 6 weeks of the Belgian Jupiler League
(Overall League Season 2018-2019 Stats vs Asian Lines)
Since my main focus when betting the Belgian Jupiler league is on Asian Handicaps at serious bookmakers (See Sportmarket Pro Review) because they allow for higher stakes and do not limit winning players, I have also been keeping my own Statistics for the last 10 years . These kind of stats that focus on the asian handicaps are nowhere to be found on the internet for as far as I know and really help my personal style of handicapping looking for overrated and underrated teams and totals along with specific situational spots.
These are the stats currently of the G5 Teams. I track both the opening (green background) and closing lines (yellow background) from asianodds. Keeping these stats weekly and filling in everything manually for each match takes up quite some time, but it really helps to paint a good overall picture. Having kept these for 10 years also allows me to quikcly backtrack situational spots when needed. These statistics are just a part of the entire handicapping puzzle and finding spots that expect profit involves a lot more than just these numbers.
Anderlecht
Club Brugge
Racing Genk
Standard
AA Gent
These are just part of the statistics I keep myself. Others include corners and more detailes 1H/2H goal stats specific for the over/under markets. The above stats represent the results when blindly betting a specific team or total with 1 unit flat stakes so far this season. Since there is a lot of short term luck invoved, these numbers don't necessarily represent the true picture. This is where closely following the league comes into play which makes a huge difference when it comes down to avoiding spots where the number misrepresent the actual situation.
The numbers
The way I am reading These numbers is that Club Brugge remains one of the strongest home teams and have been able to beat all handicaps thew were given so far this season. Racing Genk despite the excellent form did not manage to beat the asian lines. I see this mostly due to bad luck and a lot of missed penalties. AA Gent are still on my list of overvalued teams and they did not manage to beat the asian lines so far despite having a lot of late goals go their way. Their 1H/2H ratio is also very clearly in favor of more goals in the 2nd half. The Belgian League generally has a lot more goals in the 2nd half which is one of the reasons I often take 1H under bets. All top teams have also been scoring a lot of goals on average and there hav been plenty of matches with at least 1 goal after minute 72'.
Next post will take a look at the mid-table teams...