Another month, another UFC Pay Per View. This month we got the anticipated Cristiane "Cyborg" Justino vs Holly Holm 145lb UFC title fight. I got some opinions and bets on that particular fight as well as a couple other fights I'll give you a heads up on for a betting perceptive.
Cristiane "Cyborg" Justino, UFC 145lb Champion, 32yrs, 5'8, 18-1, 1 No Contest, 16 KO's (3-0, 3KO's in the UFC)
Cyborg is a force of nature in the cage. She lost her MMA debut and hasn't looked back since winning 18 straight (the no contest was originally a KO before she popped for a banned substance). She's a student of the game more than she's given credit for with her studying multiple disciplines at high levels, lately she's been sparring with 2-time Olympic gold medal winner Charessa Shields among other elite level boxers.
Holly "The Preacher's Daughter" Holm, #2 ranked at 135lbs, 36yrs, 5'8, 11-3, 3KO's (4-3, 2KO's in the UFC)
Holm had an eleven year career in professional boxing (2002-2013), winning titles in three divisions (140, 147 & 154) before she even got serious about competing in MMA. She had a bit of a start, stop, start beginning with her not being fully out of boxing and into MMA until she was 3-0 in the cage in the summer of 2013. Within a year and a half and 4 fights she was in the UFC. After a lackluster first two fights in the UFC, she got the Ronda Rousey 135lb title fight and shocked the MMA world. She dropped 3 straight fights, losing her title to Miesha Tate, from there and has only won her most recent fight over Bethe Correia.
How I Expect The Fight To Go
I think Cyborg will do what she always does as of late and show measured aggression with patience. She'll cut off the ring and give Holm as little of the cage to work with as possible. Holm will point fight while keeping a solid distance. She'd be wise to try to work in some head and body kicks and try to get Cyborg into the later rounds (Cyborg has only been past the 3rd round once & never 5 rounds) which I think are going to be the most effective means for her to win or get Cyborg out of there. Holm has the superior team (Jackson Wink) and likely the superior plan to win this fight, but the difficulty with implementing it with an older and inferior body to Cyborg's machine is gonna make this a trying task for her that even if she wins will leave her looking like she's been in the fight of her life. For that reason I'm picking Cyborg all day. The odds aren't very sexy for Cyborg to win (-360), so I'm recommending taking Cyborg inside the distance at -150. I know Cyborg has all KO's and no submissions and you will get some extra money on a KO (about .2 units for each unit bet), but I'm leaning towards Cyborg potentially getting her first submission win here cuz I think Holm is a tough competitor who Cyborg may have to beat in a more unique way then previous lesser opponents and I'm okay losing some % of my winnings to secure winnings if a submission does happen.
My recommendation: Cyborg ITD at -150, I'm betting 5 units to win 3.33
Cynthia Calvillo, #6 ranked at 115lbs, 30yrs, 5'4, 6-0, 2Sub's, 2KO's (3-0, 2Sub's in the UFC)
Calvillo has had an amazing story already whatever she does from here on. She started MMA in 2012 at 24 years old. She had a 5-1 amateur record. Turned pro in August of 2016 and had three fights in lower level MMA leagues. In February of this year while working at a Cheesecake Factory she got a call less then three weeks before UFC 209 to fight on the card. She takes the fight submits her opponent in the first round and has been on fire every since scoring another submission at UFC 210 just a month later before making her way to the co-main event in July on a Fox Sports 1 card. She'll be fourth billing tomorrow, but on a PPV main card this time so she continues to keep it moving to bigger and better things.
Carla "Cookie Monster" Esparza, 30yrs, #9 ranked at 115lbs, 5'1, 12-4, 4Sub's, 3KO's (3-2, 1Sub in the UFC)
Esparza wrestled in high school and college before turning to MMA. She turned pro in February 2010 going 6-2 before getting a call up to Invicta (the premiere all female MMA league) where she won the Invicta title within six months and three fights. From there she got another call up to the UFC this time. Well a chance to be in the UFC via The Ultimate Fighter where she had the opportunity to become the first UFC 115lb champion. And thats just what she did by beating current UFC 115lb champion Rose Namajunas in December of 2014. She would unceremoniously lose that title three months later to long standing champion, until recently, Joanna Jędrzejczyk, stopped her in the 2nd round. She didn't fight for a year due to some injuries and healing. She's gone 2-1 since her return.
How I Expect The Fight To Go
I think we are looking at a ugly standup battle while it lasts here. Neither fighter throws their hands all that well so this won't really get interesting until someone takes someone else down. Esparza is a little lazy and has too much of a tell with her takedown attempts, despite her overall technique & success, so while she has the superior wrestling by a mile here I have a hard time seeing her have all that much success vs Calvillo with them this time around. I think Calvillo is quick, elusive and thinks on her feet better than maybe anyone in this division, but certainly better than Esparza. So I think this is an easy bet for Calvillo who'll keep her war wagon moving forward.
My recommendation: Calvillo at -230. 5 units to win 2.17 units.
Matheus Nicolau, unranked at 125lbs, 24yrs, 5'4, 12-1-1, 4KO's, 4Sub's (2-0, 1Sub in the UFC)
Nicolau grew up with martial arts in his life before transitioning to MMA specifically at 17 when he had his debut. He would spend four years primarily in Brazilian MMA leagues going 10-1-1 before getting a call up to the UFC via The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil in 2015. He lost in the semifinals, but he did get a UFC deal. He's gone 2-0 in the UFC before a USADA suspension late last year and this will be his first fight back from that suspension.
Louis "Da Last Samurai" Smolka, #13 ranked at 125lbs, 26yrs, 5'9, 11-4, 5Sub's, 4KO's (5-4, 2KO's, 1Sub in the UFC)
Smolka was 6-0 in Hawaiian and Filipino MMA leagues before getting into the UFC in 2014. He was on quite the tear for awhile winning 5 of his first 6 bouts (3 inside the distance), but he's since lost 3 straight.
How I Expect The Fight To Go
I expect a very methodical & precise fight by Nicolau who'll take advantage of every single mistake Smolka makes or just keep him so honest that it'll be a fairly easy 3-0 decision for Nicolau. Smolka has some good scrambling ability so there is some chance for him to do something crazy here, but I'll bet against something crazy happening every time in a fight like this.
My recommendation: Nicolau at -225. 5 units to win 2.22 units.
Thank you for taking the time to read this & if there are any specific fights you want me to cover feel free to mention them in the comments section.
Happy New Years & Good Luck with your bets, my friends.
STEEM IT PREDICTIONS TO DATE:
PREDICTIONS: 2
CORRECT: 2
INCORRECT: 0
PCT CORRECT: 100.0%
UNITS BET: 8
UNITS WON/LOSS: +7.08
ROI: 88.5%
MOST RECENT PREDICTIONS:
https://steemit.com/mma/@mikeymanifesto/mikey-manifesto-s-combat-sports-betting-predictions-for-dec-23-2017
PENDING PREDICTIONS:
https://steemit.com/betting/@mikeymanifesto/mikey-manifesto-s-combat-sports-prediction-for-dec-31-hiroto-kyoguchi-vs-carlos-buitrago
https://steemit.com/betting/@mikeymanifesto/mikey-manifesto-s-combat-sports-predictions-early-peek-at-the-bellator-heavyweight-grand-prix