This is my first post on Steemit. I have written kindle books on horse racing and Bitcoin.
Some things that stand out is that you cannot make money going with the crowd.
Watch as you see brokerages list stocks about to go up. Odds are they have already bought the stock. The information disclosure is all part of the game. For example, when China or Jamie Dimon dis(respect) crypto, you can be sure that if they are not buying, then some of their close friends and/or relatives are buying. Conversely when everyone is shouting good news, sell! Occasionally this advice will be wrong due to some fundamental late-breaking change. Do not risk too much on any trade. Stocks brokerages have worked like this for years. Since cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether, and especially the alt currencies are so new, you need to have a fundamental understanding because new technologies can come out of left field and blow you all away. This means charts are not as reliable as they are in the (old) stock market paradigm.
Poker: You must know your odds, but then that is straight-forward. Online poker depends on accurate player readings. When I first played I won constantly. No one had a read on me. But as I kept playing I got worse and worse results. Why? People were paying large sums of money to have access to superior player data. If you want to succeed in online poker, be prepared to spend big for up-to-date statistics on individual players. Of course, if the site allows you to change your name, that might help for a while. BUT be assured the site is letting some people know your previous name (for a price). Gotcha again! In person poker can use the same types of statistics but they are not a easily available.
Horse racing tracks have a monopoly in North America. Your tax money will be used to prosecute anyone who tries to wager without the track getting their fatal (to the long-term survival of the game) cut. Play sports that are not so monopolistic. Perhaps try U.K. racing where you can shop around for odds. You can often find arbitrage bets where you can wager so as to win regardless of which horse wins. If you are in a country that has access to exchange betting and takes less than five percent as their cut then you have a good chance. Unfortunately Betfair has not made a lot of progress in North America.
Perhaps in time, when the government cannot tell us how to spend our hard-earned money, we will be free to use cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Dash to engage freely in speculative and entrepreneurial projects we choose. I'll keep you updated about the progressive changes in this brave new world.
Aaron Ainslie