hey guys in this cryptocurrency market we have recently reached new lowest level in 2018. in this blog I would like to take a moment and give you my opinion. why this is happening why this is normal and why we should expect new all-time high levels in the future.
YEAR 2010 - 2011
Let's just take a look at historical chart since 2011. when one Bitcoin was around only 6 cents so during that year in June 2011. Bitcoin has reached at that time it was all-time high approximately 30 dollars per coin. but the party didn't last awhile just a few months later to be more specific in December. bit concise plummeted to low two dollars that's a 93 percent drop. let us keep this in mind we will calculate historical volatility do not worry it's very simple no complicated math
YEAR 2012
that drop the price of the bitcoin was for the most part consistently stable for quite some time. no crazy swings no huge interest from the media no major catalyst. but the price was slightly climbed up and reached to ten dollars per coin.
YEAR 2013
however in early April 2013 a similar price spike has happened and bitcoin reached at that time new all-time high level. around two hundred thirteen dollars per coin. but once again party didn't last a while just four months later in the mid of July price has dropped to sixty dollars. that's a 72% drop in price after that drop price here slightly recovered and remain stable for quite some time.
YEAR 2013-2014
Until late 2013 price surprisingly spiked again and reached another new all-time high levels. slightly more than $1,000 per coin but of course shortly after that in just additional few months. the price of a single Bitcoin fall again to $300 per
coin that's another 72% decrease.
YEAR 2015
But after this drop the price of a Bitcoin remaining between $200 to $300 for almost entire year.
YEAR 2016
it started gaining some momentum in January 2016 and slightly increased throughout the whole year. nothing too crazy.
YEAR 2017-2018
But since January 2017 the price started to increase more aggressively almost as an exponential function and during the same year. it has reached the new all-time high levels of $19,000 per one coin I'm pretty sure you remember those days they were in December and January. when people were victim of psychological bias calls fear of missing out. spending money they do not have to buy coins they do not need. Some people even took a mortgage to buy a Bitcoin it's very ironic how people would put all the savings into the when Bitcoin was at $19,000.
YEAR 2018
but when Bitcoin $6,000 they do not want to hear nothing about it bitcoins price has deflated and reached to the current price of around $6000 per coin. this is about six to eight percent drop if it continues to fall it may drop to $5300 dollars per coin. which is going to be a historical average of 72% decrease. so let's just calculate our historical downside volatility of a Bitcoin. As I mentioned earlier no crazy math involved we're just going to take an average of those major drops. which is 93% plus 72% plus 72% plus the current drop of 68% everything divided by 4 which is 76% so the normal drop. we can consider is 76% to be honest I highly doubt the price would go below $5,000.
if it would the price would slightly decrease then 76% historical average. however cryptocurrency market is highly volatile 70 to 80% is a normal range of volatility adjust the nature of the beast. if you are not ready to see your portfolio decrease in 76% or so then possibly cryptocurrency market is just not for you. additionally if you believe in technical analysis and patterns the behavioral price of the movement is more or less becomes trivial.
After every major drop in the near future we reach new and I mean new all-time high.
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