Happy Thanksgiving to all my Canadian friends!!!

Over the weekend we witnessed Bitcoin set a higher high in its current rally coming back around from just below the fibonacci resistance/support at $4216, confirming the broader rising wedge pattern we identified late last week. Currently we are stalling at $4697 area - an important zone I've been writing about - so our thesis for this week remains similar to last week's. While price action shows signs of strength in the market, it may only be the case in smaller time frames. On the bigger time frames we still see a possible crown reversal in play on the 4HR and a big one in the daily. These are not confirmed, but we are mapping out possibilities to be prepared. If price continues higher past $4697 we adjust and move on. 

VERY IMPORTANT: Keep in mind there is a high likelihood of an impending hard fork in Bitcoin, so there could be hording or panic selling depending on what is going on between makers of the Bitcoin infrastructure (miners/devs, etc.). Bitfinex came out with a statement that has warned about "replay" issues during the hard fork, which was not really that big of a deal prior to the fork that created Bitcoin Cash (it was taken into account as a precaution). However, this time around we are facing an instrument that seems to contain incompatible code for both B2X (the newly created asset) and BTC to coexist. For this reason we may see a short squeeze in BTC (this results in rising price) as Bitcoin lending evaporates due to fear of replay and want for free B2X (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-exchanges-coinbase-bitfinex-issue-guidance-before-segwit2x-hard-fork).

If you are not familiar with how I trade, I only enter the market at an investment point or a swing opportunity (I set out my trade entry and stops on Trading View). These require the least amount of sitting in front of the computer and I can be more productive elsewhere. What do these two types of strategies mean? In the context of Bitcoin, an investment opportunity means entering somewhere along a double bottom after a prolonged downturn (just like the one we got in Bitcoin in 2015 at approx $160). So clearly we are not doing this with Bitcoin or any other crypto asset for a while to come. On the other hand, a swing opportunity can present itself at support or resistance levels at any point in time. These can come at various levels of risk, such as counter-cyclical trades (higher risk). These we can always look for. When do we get in and out? That's what these technical reports are all about.

Also, I get questions about why I don't cover Ethereum or Litecoin and stuff. This is because I don't see an analytical reason to invest or swing trade in these assets at the moment as they are in a downtrend against Bitcoin. See  LTC Descending Wave 5 and  Ethereum: Finding the End of Consolidation Wave A

Bitcoin

As always, let's start with BTCUSD...

We are trading above the short box. This means we cleared the 0.618 of the bearish swing from $5000 to $3000 and overcame selling pressure. But we are not out of the woods yet. Often, the levels where we are trading turnout to be tops in hindsight, or the top end of the "trading range." In a crown reversal, the formation of the "right crown" around the resistance level of the "left crown" is part of the pattern. So, at these levels I am looking to open cheap shorts :) Trading above $4697 casts doubt on the crown reversal idea, but the big buy signal comes from breaking the previous all-time high at $4974.

Updates can be found HERE this week.

OmiseGo

The short trade from last week is still open :)

We bounced around the major fibo support level (0.618) of the entire bull run from inception, but in the end it turned into resistance. Meanwhile, the rally in the BTCUSD chart continues. This is a shift in the previous strong correlation exhibited in the OMGUSD pair. Why?

We need to shift our attention to the OMGBTC chart to explain the shift. The chart shows us how we broke the uptrend line and fell through the major fibo support level. Harmonics and the trading range support show us a possible landing zone.

For now in the OMGUSD we have trading ranges that provide us with target levels, so the short trade will continue until see divergence on the RSI at support levels.

Updates can be found HERE.

Bitcoin Cash

Since I closed the short trade last week, the price has been hovering around the long box support level, which is also the structural wave 1 support. A decision has been made, however, and we are back in the game. I opened this trade on Sunday.

If we look at the BCHBTC chart, you will see something interesting:

There was literally a crash as all the fibo supports were breached. Normally, I would say its time to start looking for investment points, but its not clear where the crypto market (led by Bitcoin) is in the cycle at this point. More importantly, why did this crash NOT reflect in the BCHUSD chart to the same extent? Was this caused by the impending fork?

Updates can be found HERE.

Ripple

Ripple continued its rally and broke out of the downtrend line! It also managed to escape the short box area. The next zone to watch is the major fibo resistance (this is a return to the big 0.618), where resistance will be huge.

I don't expect Ripple to continue higher because of this chart which shows weakness in the short box area:

Updates can be found HERE.

Ethereum

I am also paying attention to Ethereum now as we had a breach of the 0.382 to the downside, which will reflect in the ETHUSD pair:

Updates can be found HERE.

That's all for now. I will be publishing a few other charts this week and will post them on a separate thread. I will publish a Friday report with a full weekly summary.

Cheers and GLWT!
- Erik.