Hope you had a good weekend. I'm finding this Monday a bit of a drowsy one. That's because I spent too much time on the weekend managing and planning trades. That was a mistake. From now on I am gonna try to minimize this kind of activity on the weekends when I should be resting. Mental and physical freshness is a must when playing in these markets or making any kind of important decisions, really. I would advise to you the same.
Let's begin...
Overall, the market seems to be taking something of a pause from its trajectory. Bitcoin has been fluctuating within the "crown reversal zone" I mentioned last week. Meanwhile, the alt market is taking a bit of a breather from the massive selloffs against Bitcoin. There is no doubt, as always, that Bitcoin is leading the pack and that we are experiencing some kind of short squeeze here. You would have to be very vigilant to short bitcoin at this time, or end up possibly owing your entire account within a few days. Of course, we are not shorting, we have a daily target to the upside.
Today, I will cover more instruments than usual, this is because a full spectrum overview like this really gives you a better sentiment of the market. And right now, that sentiment is an interesting one. The current selloffs against BTC will have to bounce back, and if Bitcoin remains in a strong position when this bounce happens across the alt market we are bound for some serious gains.
*I have changed to a dark theme on Trading View for the winter just to switch things up. They are my charts no less.
Bitcoin
After hitting our hourly MAX TP last week, we are currently we are consolidating within the potential crown reversal area. Support looks pretty strong, but if we fall through we will trigger our stop-loss which is now moved just below the flag formation. It would be quite normal to dip and bounce off the sub-key fibo support and continue higher. The support zone extends down almost to the breakout zone, so it would not be surprising if it breached that level momentarily. If we get stopped out, we will want to jump back in once we see some supportive price action or we buy the breakout of the previous high. Key levels to watch are pretty clear on the chart.
Pay attention to the second potential crown reversal zone where our flag target resides. On the way there we have our daily profit taking point, which we will take, and then let the rest ride to our final destination. There is also a bullish flag target 2, which would be very nice :)
Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qvhdpq1g-Bitcoin-Structural-Wave-5-Foundations-For-A-Crown-Reversal/
OmiseGO
Currently we have a short trade going. There is a uptrend line ahead, so I may close the short just to get some sure profit out of this trade. Remember we have a bearish flag formation that looks like it will bring us in for a falling wedge pattern on the 4HR rather than the bullish flag I've pointed out. But at the moment this is unknowable for sure.
Combining this chart, we can see there is strength to the overall instrument in this market. Which adds to the "close the short" thesis. We have patterns which deduce some nice targets, but that major key fibo level is holding fairly well here. This, of course, may be due to the stability in the BTCUSD chart, for now. If it breaks, we will see nice down moment in this pair - although the OMGUSD chart may get propped up by BTCUSD. Key levels are in plain sight on the chart. Be decisive and keep the RSI in mind and you'll be fine.
My broader thinking for OmiseGO is that we will see some low levels hit in the OMGBTC chart that will initiate a big rally back to the major fibo level. Together with strength in the BTCUSD chart, we could be looking at 100% gains in USD terms once things get going.
Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OMGUSD/6bIi1luh-Bullish-Flag-or-Falling-Wedge-Catching-Structural-Wave-3/
Bitcoin Cash
We have seen heavy looses in this instrument over the last month. Now, there is a feeling of despair among its holders or traders. This makes for crappy day trading, so the big guys might move in and fetch at these relatively super low prices. However, its too risky to jump in right now (think in game theory terms). Currently we are kissing a downtrend line, which removes an object of resistance! But up and downtrend lines are funny things, and should not be the point of focus. If the trend continues, we are looking for a breakout to the bottom of the bear flag.
In this chart we can see that things collapsed pretty hard, but that they also bounced back and regained stability vis-a-vis BTC. There is room for a rally to the top of the descending channel :) Watch carefully my friends for a breakout to the upside...
Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BCHUSD/fBDg603h-Bitcoin-Cash-Consolidation-New-Low-or-Structural-Wave-5/
Ripple
I have had a few shorts go south on me over the weekend in this pair. Entry was awkward and the overlapping fibo levels made things tricky. The inverse head and shoulders did the trick to break the descending channel and the symmetrical triangle visible on the 4HR chart. This is where I got stopped out. However, things came crashing down, so I jumped back in. So far so good. The "Ripple is good at returning to the max fibo" rule was a good one, it just did not become valid until all of the max fibos were hit. So we can now change the rule to "Ripple is good at returning to ALL the max fibos." lol
With our new rule in mind, we can make a pattern in the other chart as well. Once we play half of this out, I will close my short (probably later tonight) and we will wait to see what happens in the overall pattern. I am hoping for strength in the XRPUSD chart to take us on a structural wave to the upside, riding that BTCUSD strength.
Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUSD/YTI8OOcb-Ripple-Consolidation-Deep-Correction-or-Structural-Wave-5/
TenX Pay Token
It kinda looks like we are forming a upright head and shoulders formation sitting on the top of the target box here. This should take us to the reversal zone I have marked on the chart. From there, I can see a crown reversal happening upon exiting the falling wedge to the upside. The fall could go further, so I have a secondary reversal zone marked on the chart. I am not one for countercyclical trading, but when the reward has a 50% profit potential its worth putting down something. Its worth pointing out that the fundamentals are good behind this coin, also.
Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PAYBTC/S9vq1xPF-Collapse-or-Breakout-TenX-Pay-Consolidation/
Ethereum
I have never posted a dedicated Ethereum/USD chart on Trading View, mainly because I have seen getting opportunities elsewhere beyond the rally we had up until July. No less, here is my chart is you are trading this instrument. Falling to the wayside of the rising wedge would take us to the downtrend line...keep this in mind.
Against Bitcoin this is how we look:
The path of least resistance is to the downside. We could consolidate here for a while before breaking to the downside further. This might keep things stable in the ETHUSD chart for a while.
Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHBTC/zWIoWwcI-Finding-the-End-of-Consolidation-Wave-A/
Litecoin
I have never posted a Litecoin/USD chart on Trading View, either. For the same reason as I have already specified. Even with the media blessing this instrument with its performance of 100% gains. This is chump change compared to some of the other instruments. Anyway, this is the chart I am looking at this week with targets to the upside and downside on the board.
This chart is at a critical place, because we need to breakout to the upside of this downtrend channel or face a steep drop. I have already given my two cents on the long term of this coin, but the BTCUSD strength may prop or even propel the price further up in USD.
Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/LTCBTC/gqsY2N3Q-LTC-Descending-Wave-5-Heading-Near-Zero-BTC-Value/
Ethereum Classic
If you are playing with Ethereum Classic, you will want to watch this chart. A break to the downside will force selling. This instrument has come a long way down, though, so we may get a rally to the upside. This will drive the price up in USD big time! I'm watching this one carefully, just like Bitcoin Cash and OmiseGo.
Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETCBTC/KH3hHt7z-Ethereum-Classic-Big-Head-and-Shoulders/
That's all for now. Check back a few times this week as I will be posting fresh threads on Trading View. If it has the dark theme, you'll know its new.
GLWT!
-Erik