Juniper Research just released a forecast, “The future of Cryptocurrency - Deep Dive Data & Forecasting 2016-2021,” which attributes a price prediction and tripling in bitcoin's transaction value this year to three specific factors.
The investment bank-grade forecast contains 24 tables, six ‘what-if’ analyses, and nearly 1,900 data points to illustrate their prediction. The PDF is available for £1,990, or about $2,646 at press time.
“The emergence of Bitcoin and an array of alternative cryptocurrencies over the past 5 years has been one of the true phenomena of eCommerce. Initially a purely P2P (Person To Person) mechanism, cryptocurrencies are increasingly being offered by online retailers as purchasing options.” - Dr. Windsor Holden, Juniper Research.
The forecast includes several key data points for the next five years, broken into regions, including the active number of Bitcoin and altcoin users, average bitcoin transaction volumes, total bitcoin transaction volumes, average bitcoin transaction values, and total transaction values for the Bitcoin network.
All bitcoin volumes and values are said to be split by exchange, and retail use. The latter is forecast to reach beyond US$92 billion this year, three times their estimation for last year.
An interactive spreadsheet provided with the report offers raw data split into service type, channel, regional and key country markets. The data enables firms and users to create custom charts for specific markets and sectors, or to create scenario-based models.
A free whitepaper, “Will bitcoin bite back?,” helps set the stage for the forecast, explaining bitcoin’s history and scale. The six page document also defines ‘Exchange Security’ and ‘Volatility’ as the two largest challenges in cryptocurrency adoption. The final page gives a detailed explanation of what’s inside the full forecast.
Juniper states that there are three primary factors driving the price of bitcoin upwards; Uncertainty over Brexit, the continued weakness of the Chinese economy, and a reduction in the bitcoin supply known as ‘the halvening.’ The author also mentions the fear of a possible Trump presidency.
“If Donald Trump becomes President of the US, there is the very real prospect of turmoil on world markets – the Economist Intelligence Unit ranks his Presidency within the Top 10 global risks,” states the whitepaper. “Bitcoin trading would thrive in such an environment, at least until the impact on major fiat currencies becomes clear.”
“The research argued that Bitcoin’s value is to a significant extent dependent upon economic uncertainty and political instability as investors seek safe havens for their assets.” - Dr. Holden.
Founded in 2001, Juniper Research is a top market research firm that provides coverage of the FinTech, mobile, and online technology space as well as disruptive technologies which the firm sees as "becoming mainstream in the next few years."
Headquartered in the United Kingdom, the analyst house provides industry knowledge for clients in many different sectors and industries. According to their website, the firm has been offering research into payments, banking and financial services for more than a decade, to a client list that includes American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Barclays, Cisco, Citi, Disney, IBM, MoneyGram, Pfizer, Siemens, Sony, Verizon and Visa.
Dr. Holden’s report is the latest and most robust publication in Juniper’s research section, “The future of Cryptocurrency,” and includes the second price forecast for cryptocurrencies made by the firm.
A March 2015 report, “The Future of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin & Altcoin Impact & Opportunities 2015-2019,” states that the number of active Bitcoin users “will reach 4.7 million by the end of 2019, up from just over 1.3 million last year."
While Juniper may have produced the most in-depth forecast for bitcoin, it’s far from being the only company making predictions about bitcoin’s price. Bold predictions occasionally come from people both inside and outside of the industry.
Zebpay, an Indian bitcoin exchange, published a blog post with its own 2016 forecast in February, which highlighted far more factors than Juniper’s three. Although it was light on actual numbers, Zebpay suggested “start accumulating in January and reap fruits in June,” primarily due to the halving.
Vinny Lingham, the CEO of Civic and co-founder of Gyft, has made some solid predictions about bitcoin’s price in the past. The outspoken bitcoin entrepreneur and speaker predicted $1,000 per bitcoin in the first half of 2013. By year’s end it had reached $1,200.
Raising a few eyebrows and tempers, the following spring he predicted that it would not return to the $1,000 range for the entirety of 2014. That year it continued to sink from the high $700s to $321, concluding bitcoin’s worst performing year.
Many media outlets have therefore quoted Lingham’s third prediction, made this spring when the price of a bitcoin was in the low $400’s: Bitcoin will return to $1,000+ by the end of 2016, and will push past $3,000 in 2017.
Venture Capitalist Tim Draper has also made his fair share of great predictions, and is one of the largest buyers of the auctioned Silk Road coins. Draper made a more daring price prediction in April, $10,000 per bitcoin within three years.