People want to have complete FREEDOM and be in FULL control of themselves (their assets and body). This is the logic that we all use to Occam's Razor away the doubt that the crypto economy is a bubble that will explode sooner or later, and we can all agree (to some extent) that Blockchain is in for a LONG and DISRUPTIVE run, that will change the shape of economy as we know it. And that the future of internet (and economy) is decentralized.
Which in my opinion is good, more on this later.
What we don't generally realize are the true implications and consequences of decentralization of the economy. This post is not about those implications and consequences, but this post is about ONE OF THOSE CONSEQUENCES that decentralization will have on the economy, which is: A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE GOING TO MAKE A LOT OF MONEY.
I might do a post on Decentralization too, in the future. To be honest; it all depends on how much time I find and how interesting I find Steemit to be.
For most, Blockchain is all to complex! It's not worth the effort to learn it all and then some; to start trading. For them the best strategy (step wise) is to:
- Buy a popular crypto. (like BTC/ETH/XRP/NEO etc)
- Now you own a crypto that you don't fully understand and didn't have before. And the crypto has VALUE which will keep increasing for the foreseeable future.
- Now your ONLY GOAL is NOT SPENDING the crypto for a few months/years.
- CASH OUT when you're satisfied with the returns (or before the crypto you have invested in FAILS, which is not going to happen anytime soon for the aforementioned cryptos)
This is a VERY SAFE and IMPORTANT bet to make, and I suggest EVERYONE to buy some Bitcoin. This is important because, you don't want to be left behind when the future kicks in, YOU WANT TO claim your share of the future of economy. ;)
Now, to the part that is promised in the title of this post. Note that, this part is ONLY for the people who understand Blockchain to some extent and know what forks are.
Before you read on, know that all of this comes with RISK. You have to be good at RISK MANAGEMENT or YOU WILL LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY. Accept this, or TURN BACK NOW. Don't take financial advice from a "guy on the internet" make your own choices, use this as a reference to learn and improve your own trading strategies (maybe learn a few "secrets" along the way). With that being said I have a SUBSTANTIAL trading experience and I'm sure you can learn a lot from this post.
I'm not biased against crypto-dummies, I just don't have the time right now to make posts about Blockchain, Ledgers, Forks and the list goes on. And I am not satisfied with most of the information going around on the internet. Wiki is complete but too technical. It's easy either to share technical information OR the intuitive explanation (giving up on technicality). The trick is to find a right balance for sharing that information so that EVERYONE can understand it and the inner-workings.
Phew, with all that out of the way, let's begin.
The Secrets
This goes without saying that this is MY ROADMAP to maximize my returns with this upcoming fork, I highly believe that this is the most efficient strategy for this particular fork, I am still working and building on this strategy by learning more from the market each day.
We are all aware of the volatility of BTC (and other cryptos), and many also do know that the Trade Volume directly affects the exchange value of a cryptocurrency (or any other commodity). Let's visualize this with help of some graphs. Then try to make sense of it. The key to making successful trades is learning from the market.
The graph above visualizes how trade volume directly affects prices, using a HUGE volume influx in BTC on October 9 as an example.
Please go to Coinmarketcap and see this for yourself, play around with different time scales and time periods to see how the trade volume influences the price directly.
To make this more clear, please refer to the graph below, this graph uses "The ICO Ban in China" as an example to demonstrate this principle. The ICO Ban had a great impact on the Trade Volume, many misinformed crypto owners took it for an all out crypto ban, hence selling out. Changing the trade volume substantially, hence the price drop.
The infamous September price drop due to China ICO Ban and Regulations.
If you're with me on this so far, great. If you already know this, BETTER. Now is the time for some "Dirty Business" (Insider Secrets)
Before proceeding, there's JUST ONE THING. Please have a look at a few price charts below before we begin.
- Ether (ETH) Price Drop on Oct 9
- Ripple (XRP) Price Drop on Oct 9
- Litecoin (LTC) Price Drop on October 9
Homework: Go to Coinmarketcap NOW! And look at what happened to EVERY altcoin on October 9. You will be amazed. I ASSURE YOU!
Now you're back. And if you're paying attention you know that the FIRST CHART I have shared in the post (one with the lines to help you visualize the relation) is of BTC for the SAME DAY. You're wondering, "But why did BTC price increase and every other altcoin drop? Is this purely random? What was the reason?" The news wasn't very precise about it, but they sure did write about the magical price decrease because it was a considerable fluctuation. Neither did another country ban cryptos (or their derivatives). So, what was it?
If you are an active trader, you couldn't have possible missed the sudden price drop in altcoins and a corresponding increase in BTC. But you were left wondering with why this actually happened.
This is why it happened:
So far we have established that:
- Trade Volume affects price of all cryptos. (and commodities)
- Some factors can influence the trade volume, hence the prices (hence the Volume, completing the circle of life :P)
The China ICO Ban
- PRICES AND TRADE VOLUMES CAN BE INFLUENCED
What actually was happening on October 9 was, * wait for it *
BTC WHALES (like Coinbase, Polychain INC, who knows who. Maybe I'm a benevolent BTC whale, maybe I'm not) TRADING THEIR ALTCOINS FOR BITCOINS.
Experienced traders and people who study the market closely understand these things, and account for them to maximize their profits.
This is a very lucrative time to pull off insider trades like these for the whales, they know many people will buy BTC before the fork to get the free associated Bitcoin Gold as a dividend on their Bitcoins (this is going to be the Step 1 in this guide too, but hang around there are more steps)
What will they accomplish by this trade? Well, nothing in particular from this particular trade. This is a part of a series of Insider Trades that will happen over the next few weeks. I cannot predict the whole series of the trades that WILL happen, because they are very tailored according to the situation, not pre-planned in advance. The Whales, are always learning from the market and very carefully choosing their next step. I know this because THIS IS EFFICIENT. And EFFICIENCY is important for business (and nature and Universe). Money is efficient, the way it's designed currently, it looks for maximum growth in the least amount of time with the path of least resistance.
Keeping all this in mind... Here, is my "general" plan to maximize profits in the upcoming fork.
The Steps
- Buy Bitcoins if you haven't already.
- Transfer them in a wallet you control the private keys of.
- Keep an eye out on the market, and try to exchange ALL your cryptos to BTC before October 25 (ie, the date for the Fork implementation)
- Wait for the Fork to be implemented.
- Gain access to your Bitcoin Gold (BTG) dividend.
- TRADE MOST OF YOUR BTG ASAP for the alcoins that you exchanged for BTC in the third step
Most whales don't like BTG, because it will render their ASIC BTC Mines obsolete. And they WILL dump most of it as soon as BTG is forked and avaliable to exchange, hence driving the price down by a LOT.
- Save some BTG, just in case BTG goes to the moon in future ;)
- Diversify your portfolio again, because now you have a lot more BTC than you initially had (if you followed steps 1 through 3)
Epilogue
I could have just written the steps or I could have shared my results after following them, like many Steemers do. That saves a lot of time and is more EFFICIENT anyway.
But Steemit is not business for me. I'm just trying to share what I have learnt from my experience in the crypto market. I'm trying to ignite good discussions and exchange of ideas. Hence, making the world smarter everyday.
Remember the most important thing to be noted here is;
The steps are dynamic, what's important is studying and understanding the market.
Let me know what your strategy is, and if you think that it is more profitable than mine, I would love to discuss and hear from you. Let's all understand the working of this new market and economy, so that we can all truly be an equal part of it, and maintain the essence of true decentralization.
This post was submitted to #bellyrubchallenge in hopes of reaching a bigger audience.