I hope everyone is having a good weekend so far. I was just looking at the charts and see a few things going on. There still seems to be an air of indecision in the Cryptosphere right now, but let's see if we can find some opportunities in the Bitcoin chart.
As you'll recall from my last post, I'm expecting the Bitcoin price to rise back towards $3000, but it may take some more time to do it. The price has been bouncing between $2600 and $2300 for most of this week, and has been nearly range bound(orange lines) between $2450 and $2600 for the last few days in particular. Bitcoin has been trending down since yesterday and the descending trend line is about to squeeze price against it's lower $2450 range(bottom orange line).
I expect to see either a breakout or breakdown before tomorrow, depending on overall market sentiment, when price nears the tip of this wedge formation. As always, I hope it will breakout to the upside, but the last weekend leading into a holiday(Memorial Day) was pretty terrible for cryptocurrency price action. We may be in for some discounts over the next few days if history repeats itself. We may even see a retest of previous lows at $2300.
The RSI is showing that price is nearing an oversold condition, so maybe the bulls will come through on this holiday weekend. It would be nice to see the market rally and push price back up over $2800 and resume the bullish trend. Time will tell.
While I've got you all bummed out 😂, let's take a look at the weekly chart. It's been a while since we've done that.
Speaking of history repeating itself, let's examine the last parabolic rise in Bitcoin price back in early 2014. When we had the last spike, the price rose from barely over $100 to $1240 very quickly, then slowly stepped back down to $200 over the following 2 year period. This 2 year bear market represented a .786 - .886 Fibonacci Retracement by the end of the pullback in late 2015 😲
Could we be about to repeat this scenario right now? It's hard to say, but we can put a Fibonacci Retracement Tool on the price spike and see where it lands. If we measure the most recent move from just under $900 to $3000, we get a .786 retracement of $1350. It's important to note that we can NOT possibly know if the move is over. It could go much, much higher than $3000. In fact, if we were to stick to our previous price spike as the example, we would expect a full 10x return, just like in 2014. We started the move at $900, so $9,000 is not out of the realm of possibility. However, for the sake of preparedness, let's assume that $3000 was the top and we're keeping in mind that price could possibly pull back to $1350.
We could find $1350 in our long term trend channel, but it would make for a pretty sharp drop, not a long drawn out one, like we had in 2014. That trend channel is strong, and for that reason, I don't believe the top is in yet. I believe it is much closer to $10,000. The market just needs some certainty on Bitcoin's scaling path and the bullish trend will resume. If I'm wrong, we'll know pretty soon.
In the short term, we could see a dip this weekend. I hope to see the trend resume soon, but just in case, prepare for some discounted Bitcoin. In the bigger scope of things, I think we will see many new all time highs this year. Always be ready for whatever the market throws at you. As always, keep your stops tight and trade safely.
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