From 1998-2018, whether as part of my job or zealousness to spread my word, I wrote essentially an article a day. For those who followed me as an oilfield service analyst, investor relations officer, marketing director, blog proprietor, and prominent member of the Precious Metals and cryptocurrency communities, you know I’m not kidding.
Today, I Tweet when I have something to say – and even then, sparsely; as all I care about is Bitcoin, in a world where quite literally, thousands of new content creators are arriving each month. However, I occasionally feel compelled to write an article, as I did (late) tonight). In this case, on my current thoughts of a market with unprecedented growth, making unprecedented changes to the human condition.
As a Bitcoin OG dating to 2013 – though I didn’t REALLY start acquiring until early 2016 – I have seen it all, and experienced every possible emotion. Bitcoin has not been for the faint of heart; which is why those who have persevered will shortly (some, already) be the world’s wealthiest people.
From a pure fundamental standpoint, Bitcoin has already won the game. There is no turning back, as it WILL shortly usurp gold’s $10T mkt cap – and ultimately, go MUCH higher as supply dries up, and adoption rises exponentially. This is now set in stone, and NOTHING can stop it.
Simultaneously, as fiat money printing goes parabolic, assets of all kinds are being hyperinflated – though none as much as Bitcoin, as it is BY FAR the most undervalued. Frankly, the ONLY assets currently declining are gold and silver, which are losing their age-old monetary properties; and bonds, as governments can no longer support prices at nosebleed levels when the entire world is selling.
Bitcoin is quite literally, changing a world we have known for centuries, in barely a decade’s time. To that end, if you think the past decade was progressive, wait until ten years from now…when BTC is above $1 million, banks no longer exist, and the centralized political, economic, and social structures that have dominated the world are dead or dying.
In the meantime it is still subject to enough doubt, by the 95+% who haven’t yet discovered its power, to cause above average price volatility – though thankfully, actual, believable FUD is dead.
Conversely, one thing that is NOT dead is the belief that countless altcoins will be the “next Bitcoin” – if not functionally, in terms of potential price gains. To that end, there are many altcoin projects born of good intentions, that actually believe this to be the case – though many more are created solely to pump and dump.
“Alt seasons” have occurred numerous times - but this is the most impressive, given how many trillions of dollars are entering the space. Much of it arrived January 1st, when massive amounts of new crypto hedge funds launched; and at least as much will likely enter now, given the proliferation of second quarter- launched funds following the first quarters' historic gains. This, as MAJOR news tailwinds are arriving – like next week’s Coinbase IPO; and likely, the imminent approval of one or more U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.
To that end, Bitcoin is being forced to endure a dilution of its “dominance” by exploding altcoins – from old and new coins alike. Frankly, the “unit bias” trend has never been stronger – so much so, even completely discredited coins like BCH and BSV are exploding higher, both absolutely and relative to Bitcoin. In fact, altcoin dominance – which started to surge, as I anticipated, EXACTLY January 1st – is increasing so rapidly, it has enabled Ethereum to quite literally, CONTROL Bitcoin’s every move.
Yes, I know it sounds crazy – but all you have to do is look, to realize EVERY Bitcoin tick follows Ethereum - in a “wag the dog” phenomenon unlike anything I’ve seen.
WHY is this happening? I have wracked my brain for months, and have no idea. However, what I do know, is that ultimately Bitcoin will break free, as it has from all altcoin seasons of the past. And frankly, the fact that BTC is trading at $58,000 (up 100% this year), even as it is being DESTROYED by altcoins in terms of percentage gains, shows you just how strong it is…and how manic the current alt season is.
As for what’s fueling the current alt mania, I am not so naïve to simply call it is a dotcom-like phenomenon – which unquestionably, was what we saw in late 2017 and early 2018 (along with fears Bitcoin would be destroyed by BCash, LOL). No, today’s altcoin explosion is fueled only partly by pure FOMO – and equally so, retail AND institutional vision of what the emerging Digital Age might look like. This, as the clear and present threat of fiat hyperinflation overlays all.
So, for those frustrated by Bitcoin’s uneven and enigmatic movements, remember that it is unlike any asset ever created. It moves at its OWN pace - caring not for news, alternative asset classes, or altcoins. Over time, it has destroyed everything in its path – from traditional assets to altcoins; and in time, will continue to do the same - though admittedly, it is certainly possible there will be some major altcoin successes (NONE as store of value assets like BTC, however).
Remember, Bitcoin has ALREADY WON the monetary war of the 21st century – and thus, by simply HODLing, you WILL see it surge through $10T in a relatively short period of time (my guess, 12-24 months); and do so, in a world that becomes so Bitcoin-centric, you may ultimately, never pay capital gains (as BTC becomes accepted globally as legal tender). Frankly, I expect Bitcoin to be worth 10x that amount by the 2028 halving – and do so, with amongst the best reward/risk profiles ever.
As for altcoins, the most important thing to consider is that over time, not a single one has maintained its value against Bitcoin; and secondly, that at least 98% have no discernible; let alone sustainable; use case. So, if you are lucky enough to catch a major “alt season” like today, just make sure you end it with more Bitcoin than you started out with.
If you have any questions, feel free to DM me at @Andy_Hoffman_CG; or through my firm since 2017, CryptoGoldCentral.com. Happy HODLing!