Over a 33 year career in financial markets, I have witnessed historical inflection points in the global social, political, and economic landscape – which, care of the most destructive, self-serving monetary policy ever, has doomed the world to unprecedented inflation; unrest; and ultimately, transformation.
I first sensed something was wrong in 2002, when I went all-in Precious Metals – spending the ensuing 15 years forecasting a doomsday scenario in which history’s largest, most destructive fiat Ponzi would spectacularly implode. When the system broke in 2008, it was a fait accompli such a scenario was ensured…it was just a matter of time before TPTB’s only remaining weapons – money printing, market manipulation, and propaganda (rigged CPIs, etc) would completely fail.
When I first found Bitcoin in 2013, it took time to be convinced, but in 2016 I was sold…going “all in” in mid-2017, when I sold the last of my PMs for BTC. I still believed a worst-case political, social, and monetary outcome was likely, but finally had hope that the future beyond could be bright.
That said, when BTC entered its second post-halving downturn (in early 2018, like early 2014), I was fearful of a worst-case Bitcoin scenario – as not only was it still small, but so much about its future was unclear. Yes, it had its detractors and enemies (JP Morgan, the Chinese government, etc), but the biggest risks then were WITHIN the crypto community - like Roger Ver, Fake-toshi, and others who claimed the ability to destroy or damage Bitcoin.
Those were really trying times, and how I escaped them with more BTC than I started with is the craziest, and luckiest, episode of my career. Anyone who was around in 2016-18 (not to mention, much of 2019 and, of course, the March 2020 COVID crash), EARNED the cheap BTC they have, as it was indeed a terrifying time to HODL. Bitcoin FUD was the worst I have ever seen, for any asset, any time.
Fast forward to 2022, amidst the third halving cycle downturn – which time around, is occurring amidst Bitcoin’s best ever fundamentals, as well as a macroeconomic backdrop that couldn’t be more conducive to Bitcoin adoption. In other words, there is no longer ANY fundamental issues to fear – so much so, that “FUD” per se has been permanently destroyed.
To wit, it couldn’t be clearer that there will NEVER be a challenger to Bitcoin’s monetary dominance, and NOTHING can stop its exponential growth path. Whether it becomes THE world’s reserve currency has yet to be decided (I believe it will) – but as a monetary store of value, amidst the inevitable, perhaps imminent destruction of the fiat regime, the likelihood BTC will NOT rise dramatically is slim to none.
However…
Sadly, despite all Bitcoin has accomplished; from destroying all internal threats, achieving an ATH hash rate (this month!), achieving respectability, and acceptability, from a material percentage of the global investment community; materially upgrading its technology; proving its worth amidst the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes; and achieving its highest-ever level of long-term HODLing; it has not yet reached “escape velocity” from a price and adoption standpoint.
This will come in time – likely, after the next halving…but for now, it appears extremely unlikely that Bitcoin will be able to overcome the (increasingly virulent and sophisticated) external attacks against it; until, in my opinion, the great equalizer of the next halving enables it to resume its historically cyclical bull market trend.
Yes, there are countless events that could reverse the negativity; resume the bull market; and even reach Max Keiser’s year-end target of $220,000. However, the realism that has guided my financial career; and observation of hideous, 24/7 BTC price suppression (on a par with Precious Metals) tells me the odds are against it.
In my view, what we are witnessing today is the “final battle” for global monetary leadership…between the Centralized “powers that be” and the Decentralized BTC network.
Not “crypto,” but Bitcoin – as the way I see it, essentially all altcoins are scams, with no chance of having a material, sustainable use case. Which, I might add, goes as much for Ethereum as any other coin – which, the way I see it, has only one true “use”…to promulgate as many scams and speculations as possible, from “DeFi” to NFTs to yield farming and the Metaverse.
In the big picture, the “final battle” is about Bitcoin’s myriad, powerful enemies waging all-out war, in a last ditch attempt to discredit and destroy it. They will ultimately fail, but right now, I see little evidence that failure is imminent. Fortunately, their fiat Ponzi is failing right before our eyes – so I fully expect their complex BTC suppression scheme to fail around the time of the next halving.
Some of their weapons are obvious – like the algos that have smothered BTC trading for nearly two years, tying its every tick to Ethereum whilst NEVER allowing it to rise against ETH. Of course, you’d never know it if following ANYONE but me – as to date, not a single other person has even recognized, let alone commented on, the biggest pink elephant in market manipulation history…which sadly, has only grown larger, and pinker, with each passing day. Heck, we are now actually seeing Bitcoin fall against ETH during major crypto crashes, which was in the past the ONLY time BTC was allowed to rise against ETH.
Or agencies like the SEC, who approve “futures ETFs” to attack BTC just as “paper gold” derivatives have to Precious Metals for the past 50 years…but not spot ETFs, in the name of “protecting” investors. Or governments, like China (or New York!) banning Bitcoin mining; or the IMF, extorting indebted nations like Argentina who embrace Bitcoin; or mercilessly attacking those, like El Salvador, who threatened Bitcoin standards.
However, they are not the only ones to blame – as unlike last time around, when crypto community members attempted to attack and usurp Bitcoin, this time around these wolves in sheep’s clothing are using BTC’s success to siphon unsophisticated capital into increasingly sophisticated altcoin scams.
To that end, I blame self-aggrandizing “Venture Capitalists” as much as vengeful governments for the historic destruction of crypto wealth we are witnessing today – in pumping and dumping thousands of useless coins and schemes that have steered tens of millions of unsophisticated investors away from Bitcoin, into an endless pit of irreversible losses.
Either way, the combined effect of these attacks on Bitcoin’s crypto sovereignty have weakened its momentum dramatically (despite said record on-chain HODLing from its faithful, but still small community).
When it comes to global Bitcoin adoption, price appreciation is THE only factor that matters. Anyone who says otherwise doesn’t understand the simple fact that the promise of wealth is why people are attracted to it; whilst market cap growth versus other assets – like stocks, bonds, and fiat currencies – is what gives it its strength.
The fact that Bitcoin’s technology is unprecedentedly powerful – in terms of unconfiscatability, transaction speed, and privacy – is inconsequential, as what 99% of investors want, and 100% of governments fear most; is an asset so strong, it draws capital, and POWER, from preferred, and controllable, assets.
BTC is indeed NGU technology. However, the PACE it rises is not yet determined – and for now every possible effort is being made to delay it.
The way I see it, the Bitcoin price is under attack like no other asset in history…other than gold, which in my view, the powers that be may be allowing to (SLOWLY!) rise whilst it attacks BTC, to prevent the masses from seeing Bitcoin for what it truly is; i.e., the NEW store of value king.
Bitcoin HODLing has never been stronger, as measured by the percent of supply held for more than a year…and no matter how low the price goes, I expect this statistic to remain stable…or perhaps, rise further given the increasingly wealthy and knowledgeable strong hands who own it.
However, prices are set at the margin – and when futures markets, BTC algos, and other dirty tricks are used to suppress it; now, with the “cover” of dramatically deleveraging financial markets, amidst what has typically been the weakest point of BTC’s halving cycle; it is entirely possible that the massive support at $30k is broken, yielding a cascade of non-fundamental, stop-loss driven selling.
To that end, if you think MSTR’s 129,000 BTC position - at a cost of, wait for it, $30k, is NOT being targeted, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. Or, for that matter, the SELF-INFLICTED gunshot from the massively overhyped, overrated Elon Musk (except for his cars – which like Netflix, will ultimately be commoditized)…who not only put the entire TSLA shareholder base in harm’s way with his asinine, ego-driven decision to buy an inconsequential social media platform, but his own net worth by leveraging his TSLA shares to do so. Yes, TSLA’s 43,000 BTC position will now be targeted, too, thanks to the most hubristic corporate act I have ever seen – and it’s entirely Elon’s own fault.
And then there's Terra, ticker LUNA - which used other people's money to buy a massive position in BTC, with a supposedly "decentralized" reserve structure in which a stablecoin "peg" is somehow maintained to Tether (assuming I read this correctly). I have NO IDEA what this actually means, but it sounds ugly and stupid - and apparently, the market is assuming it may be a Ponzi ready to collapse. If so, does the BTC get sold, or stolen, or what? I have no idea, but I do know that, as is the case with 99.9% of "crypto projects," the long run result is...just hold BTC, and stop trying to "make money" off it, especially on shady or stupid schemes. Which, in this case, may well lead to yet another major buy opportunity for the whales waiting to scoop up force-sold BTC from idiots.
As for GBTC’s 25% discount to net asset value, that is something that in my view, is very meaningful. In more than three decades of watching markets, and owning or analyzing closed-end funds, I cannot recall one EVER trading this far below NAV – particularly one like GBTC, which offers the only way for most institutions to own Bitcoin in a market where criminal entities like the SEC and CFTC spend 24/7 finding new ways to prevent physical BTC ownership, whilst exponentially expanding the BTC derivatives market.
In my view, the market may be discounting the possibility of GBTC being confiscated by the government – though admittedly, this is still just a wild speculation…which if attempted, could just as easily catastrophically backfire. Either way, it clearly is portending something ugly, though other than the aforementioned wild speculation, I cannot yet understand what.
The point being, that as much as I’d love to see Bitcoin buck its historical trend of collapsing two years after the halving – for various “reasons,” none of which have any chance of stopping, or even slowing Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory – the odds clearly favor significant downside from here, particularly if/when the $30k major support level is broken.
The good news, of course, is that it is highly unlikely that the remaining available supply wouldn’t be hoovered up long before the major, MAJOR support level of $20k (i.e., the high of the last halving cycle)…particularly because said fundamentals will without question, exponentially improve as we move toward the March 2024 halving.
I was REALLY hoping this cycle would be different; but the fact is, quite clearly, Bitcoin is under siege by powerful forces desperate to destroy it – and since they can’t stop the network, they have “concentrated all firepower” on suppressing the price, for as long as humanly possible.
I have zero doubt that new ATH’s will occur after the 2024 halving – but unfortunately, I have extremely low confidence in Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Fortunately, my stack is as secure and unconfiscatable as possible, so I’ll just wait it out, until the next halving cycle begins. HOPEFULLY, sooner rather than later.