I'm unclear as to why this is dystopian (unless transaction fees skyrocket to compensate for the successive loss of block reward every 4 years). If bitcoin value skyrockets, wouldn't the transaction fees compensate?

I mean dystopian for the world economy and enslavement of the nations along with inexorable stagflation, confiscations, egregious taxation, capital controls, social unrest, etc.— not for the wealthy that will hodl BTC. However, I think they too will be destroyed if Bitcoin is not thwarted. Biblical Revelation seems to apply. My next blog will explain this in detail.

Also just the electrical consumption of Bitcoin as it scales could cause price inflation for everyone. Bitcoin is already consuming 0.3% of the world’s electricity. If the S/F model holds then every 4 years Bitcoin’s electrical consumption should be growing by ≈10X regardless of transactions fees! Bitcoin could consume most of the world’s electricity perhaps before the end of the coming decade! As mentioned in my blog, Moore’s Law is slowing down, so perhaps it will take few years longer than that presuming that the increases in mining efficiency are necessary to stimulate new mining supply, but I doubt Moore’s Law will slow down soon enough to less than the 2% per annum growth rate of global electricity production. Would the rate of Bitcoin’s energy consumption increase slow as the electricity price rises due to Bitcoin’s consumption demand, or would Bitcoin’s market capitalization increase faster to compensate for the price inflation as apparently gold did? Could Bitcoin stimulate and help finance the development of fusion reactors by driving electricity prices sky high?

The people will demand that governments do something to do stop Bitcoin mining to reduce the costs of electricity. This will be a mandate for governments to become very totalitarian. But that will impoverish that nation (relative to the BTC valuation) which fails to do Bitcoin mining. Even we can imagine that governments will want to know who has their wealth in cryptocurrency so they can apply a wealth tax to compensate society for the destruction that Bitcoin is causing.

Note the transaction fees apparently aren’t needed for mining security (although needed for prioritizing which transactions can go in the limited block size) because for every halving of the minted reward, the price is increasing by a factor of 10. I’m positing in this blog that the rising transaction fees (due to the 1 MB limit) will cause an further acceleration of the valuation to greater than 10X every 4 years. Hyperbitcoinization! Yet I also posit in my blog that transaction fees may eventually moderate (as a percentage of market cap, but not moderate in terms of dollars) when all but the truly wealthy have been kicked off-chain and the Bitco[i]n Core altcoin has been forked off by the miners taking of the “pay to anyone” SegWit donations. Regardless Bitcoin’s price speeding up again, if correct, is going to shock everyone.

The immutability of the 1 MB block size is absolutely necessary, because the alternatives have no “crab bucket” Schelling point, impossible to coordinate around a variable block size limit without centralization of systemic hashrate (think game theory and attack vectors), and thus the chain would fork off and not converge on a longest chain. Analogously BCH and BSV are examples of the forking (or at least very high orphan rate and concomitant insecurity) that would apply without a Schelling point. Also immutability is necessary to give Bitcoin its sui generis valuation. My next blog will contain more detailed links about these issues including the eventual donation of the “pay to anyone” SegWit “BTC” to the miners which will make it clear that Bitco[i]n Core is an altcoin and that only Satoshi’s v0.5.3 is the real, immutable BTC protocol. Also any fungible resource such as wealth is power-law distributed, so what is best for the wealthy hodlers is what is best for Bitcoin’s valuation.

The ossification of the protocol is making updates increasingly difficult (necessary fungibility changes and privacy enhancements are becoming an emergency) and eventually too difficult to adapt to changing circumstances.

The immutability is a feature, not a bug.

Wondering now if trustless onchain will be for the truly wealthy and the rest of us will be chased off chain.

That’s another reason why it’s dystopian. But the alternative of keeping us all on-chain (if that were even possible to design?) and if also coupled with the inexorable exponential increase in Bitcoin’s valuation model, would result in Mad Max, scorched earth deflation for the world. MY subsequent blog will explain this in more detail. So at least Bitcoin is not Mad Max, but instead it is centralized usury enslavement akin to the Euro experiment. I will explain in my next blog. As I said, Revelation is prophetic, but remember Revelation says the Beast is wounded on its forehead. So there might be an antidote to Bitcoin if someone can figure it out. Such an antidote altcoin is hypothetically what we minions would move our wealth too when we are kicked off Bitcoin by the posited rising transaction fees. An antidote would be one that optimizes overall “access costs” for the world, where “access costs” is an abstraction not to be pigeonholed to the narrow concept of the ability to transact on-chain.

Regarding trustless payments, did you see my recent comment post about the flaw in LN that was popularized recently by Peter Rizun?

Has anybody studied the pendulum like flow between Austrian and Keynesian models? Seems like 2008 sparked a move back toward the former which hasn't completed yet.

Indeed any antidote needs to be about swinging that pendulum back the other direction as Bitcoin’s valuation becomes insanely high. And ideally needs to incorporate decentralization into Keynesianism.

Another facet is that it has been shown that Bitcoin requires an oligarchy to form

Actually I have a technological correction to my prior (apparently incorrect) presumption. The research I had cited appears to be incorrect. Will be explained in my next blog. However, my other reasoning (c.f. also) for centralization of mining related to free market in transaction fees may still be valid.

I think you once mentioned that you thought you had solved this centralization problem if I remember correctly. Have you implemented this yet?

My “solution” was a means of ameliorating the “nothing-at-stake” problem of proof-of-stake by employing decentralized, granular trust. I had written publicly some months ago that I had to stop working on the computer due to my health. I have been time-focused nearly exclusively on my health since then. These recent epiphanies about Bitcoin’s valuation model have caused to think I probably want to abandon my altcoin design ideas.

P.S. You may want to re-read my prior blog Rise of Hard Money is a Harbinger of Misery, because I added significantly to it from the time it was first published, especially from the §Taxes Rise Due to Politics of the Misery of Stagflation forward. I have also made some minor additions to this blog.

P.S.S. How is your health? I have experienced lately that running in the intense (I’m still in Mindanao) sunshine everyday (with shirt off) along with a diet of munching all day on raw vegetables (e.g. carrots, broccoli, cauliflower, cucumber, leafy greens, onions), only red rice for carbs, and only eating fats such as meat for dinner, I seem to be controlling my gut dysbiosis better. I lost all my belly fat and regained my teenage abs, dropping from 180 to 150 lbs (5’7” height). Note my poor health regresses when I overwork on the computer as I have been past few days on these epiphanies. I hope to be able to afford healthcare in the USA with the coming rise in the BTC price. Will do the Great Plains tests for gut dysbiosis. Perhaps I will need endoscopy. Maybe the cure will be a fecal microbiota transplant? Are you capable of working? If possible please register a free protonmail email address so I can communicate with you over an end-to-end encrypted channel. Note please access protonmail only with Linux ever (even once transgression compromises your private key login password), as you know Windows is spyware.