Who am I to be talking like I know anything? Well, I am a seasoned investor in the established Fiat equity markets and have been making far above average returns year on year for a very long time now.
How does this experience and knowledge transfer to crypto? Well, human behaviour is the same in all markets and all markets reflect human behaviour. Meaning crypto follows the same ebbs and flows of the established equity markets. The core different being the trending happens more spritely both up and down.
Bitcoin (BTC) just fell from $3,018 on the 11 Jun 2017, to $1,996 on the 15 July 2017 that is an amazing drop of 34%. Meaning on average a daily drop of 1% over the last 34 days since BTC hit an all time high.
My view now is that BTC will reverse all of its gains over the last 3 months and drop to $1,200, last seen in early April 2017. The crash will continue for the next 4 weeks before bottoming out and will be bouncing back to $2,000 in the following 3 months.
Confidence in the technology behind BTC is starting to wain. People are wondering was this just all the early adopters making billions out of their markets before crypto goes to zero. While it is possible, as it is for any equity or fiat currency to go to zero, I don't think this will happen for BTC. It will happen for many other cryptos and we will see it happen for many this year.
So what are the threats to BTC, well they are many both known and unknown? The technology behind crypto is now being adopted by mainstream banking and it remains to be seen how they implement it. Do not be surprised if the people who set up and miners who drove BTC and its technology and advancement go work for the banks.
BTC needs to get its house in order and very quickly. The mainstream media are slowly but surely eroding the public confidence of potential mainstream adoption of crypto. In addition, the reputation of existing users of BTC, miners and pretty much all other things to do with crypto is potentially shady and illegal. Hence the government will use public concern to either come in and shut down the crypto markets or regulated them out of existence. Thing is, in what the media is saying there is some truths and it makes perfect sense for the media to prey on these weaknesses.
The long-term health of the BTC and crypto is very skittish and Luddite's in the media and governments will use public fear to crush crypto. I don't know the answers how do deal with this I am just a fairly simple man... the issues are too complex to deal with.
There is great uncertainty in the BTC market due to the many issues and to be fair the difficulty that many people have with dealing in BTC and understanding the complex language and the like. Notwithstanding that I am getting in and staying in because I do believe we are in for a medium to long term win and some thing that will in what ever form it comes change the world as we know it.
I want to be part of it and there are.....
because I think the world has seen a real page turner of a story and we are only half way thought the first chapter of a very long and epic novel.
Hope you enjoyed and the best of luck to you all.