Especially for those who came late to this bullish cocktail, that in mid-December it became history, and as if that were not enough, an explosive mixture of collective optimism that served for some unsuspecting bullish at the annual opening..
POV of a Stock Market Analyst..
Unless you have a lot of bitcoins mined, or acquired through exchanges at the price of skinny chicken, do not stress, keep going strong! Bitcoin has come to stay in futures markets and it's just a matter of seeing it mature.
Look at the bars below the weekly price action. It is the long-term Bitcoin volume!
That explains that there is open interest, and it triggered its exit to the futures markets through the CBOE, CME, and soon NASDAQ markets in the first quarter of 2018. This will stabilize the Bitcoin market of strong fluctuations, and causing that the holders of portfolios of cripto currencies are very worried when seeing lose value by the law of supply and demand. And if that were not enough, wall street investors come to take their own by their speculative tricks.
The entry of institutional investors, retail traders, and hedge funds in the Bitcoin market have a great effect on all the major exchanges with Bitcoin in the markets. Bitcoin demand increased rapidly in markets such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Now institutions in the traditional financial sector are rushing to invest in Bitcoin, place their opinions in favor (and against) and provide services in everything related to the crypto.
The entry of cryptocurrencies into regulated markets tend to add more liquidity and manipulation, but manipulation is the price that must be paid to legalize what the defenders of this new currency have been promoting; that Bitcoin has more voice in the world, base of a free financial system.
It seems contradictory to celebrate this, because the price will be subject to the manipulation of the big capitals who will manipulate the price in their own way. This would be bad news if our intention is to obtain some utility. Everything will depend on how much we would be willing to enter into this trade, the leverage and the risk assumed. But behind all, the technological revolution that originated it, and is on our side, that's what matters! And in the future to come we will see how this revolution will set the tone in terms of the stability of this cryptocurrency. Its intrinsic value and its attractiveness as an alternative to the fiat, which makes us slaves of the establishment.
So, what is all this about? I came to speak as an analyst of stock markets, that for more than 5 years I have spent thousands of hours with my eyes stuck in graphics and develop strategies for speculation in the short, medium and long term in currencies, commodities and indices.
"And now, ladies and gentlemen, the bitcoin has just become something that machines and robots, wild speculators of wall street, will be able to manipulate at will ... we have just given a clean and decentralized stock to a group of speculators and wolves, who, if tomorrow they want to buy the whole bitcoin system of the planet....."
So, Welcome to the new paradigm ... Do not worry about it. Another thing is that a bubble has formed, if it comes to that, take into account the following..
With the .com crisis happened the same, and look at the nasdaq 15 years later.....
And there is something very true in this jungle of bulls and bears: big investors (strong hands) earn money, false gurus and speculators (weak hands) end up plucked. With a margin of error of 5% in this assertion.
What I'm supposed to do, if I'm already inside?
Adapting to fluctuations, understanding the price action helps to have a market perspective and make decisions with what you intend to do with your portfolio. The acquisition of bitcoin means short, medium and long term gains, regardless of what you want to do with this commodity, the basic principle is, refuge and profit. Your performance will depend on the price set by the market at the time, and it will also repeat past patterns. To look at the future, or try, it's time to take the market in two main aspects:
| Technical analysis | Fundamental analysis |
|---|
These two issues, crucial to speculate with the price I will try to explain in more detail in another post. Do not think that the fundamental analysis will have all the credits forever, as I mentioned before, Bitcoin came to Wall Street, the joke is told by itself. The balance between both types of analysis will give you advantages of the rest of the guests.
On the other hand, I do not know if it's a Ponzi scheme, or if it's a bubble, the truth is that Bitcoin is changing the market, every big market has highs and lows, those that keep saying it's a bubble, well for them.
Overloaded or not of concepts related to cryptocurrencies, and updated until the last minute of fundamentals, but without any notion of how the stock price action is, keep in mind that: if you do not fully understand the risks involved in the Trading a volatile stock like Bitcoin, should not enter. But it is the responsibility of each cryptocurrency portfolio holder to understand the instrument he or she preferred, be familiar with its characteristic, the correlation with other cryptoactives and indexes, and its impact, especially if it is described by some as a double-edged sword, because the risks or losses involved, are equivalent to the potential to obtain profit.
You can not understand well, where can probably move the price until you have been exposed to it for a long time. The real learning will not come from videos of market gurus, predictors of cryptocurrencies, news, etc, they will give you the ideas, the real learning will come from your experience, operating in real, acquiring a robust portfolio of cryptocurrencyes and assuming a risk according to your financial capabilities, but something that you can not stop going under, see how the market develops from day to day, week to week, month to month and year after year.
The real learning will come from creating your own valuations on the right side of the graph, that is, to see the live price action, I do it in real time or I do it with a simulation software.
Like you, there is a huge number of people around the world who want to buy and sell Bitcoins, among other cryptoactives, and all are involved in the Bitcoin stock market, observing or participating. Look at the chart below.
Look at the violet blocks in the Fibonacci retracements
We see that the price respects the Fibonacci key levels. These suppose the thought pattern of the masses, when they make a decision to take an order of purchase or sale, where the imbalance between supply and demand causes an important movement of the price towards a level. And I forgot to use supports and resistances, or pivot points. The technical analysis tells me that the price action obeys to an adaptation of the same to the decisions of the market participants and, therefore, tends to manipulation by strong hands.
For all the HODLers.. I want to show you something..
I will do a traditional technical analysis, taking as a reference the future of Bitcoin with expiration to February, it is the contract with the most liquidity at the moment, and nothing better than taking data from CME with better information of the exchange market. The volume shown tends to be closer to reality.
https://s.tradingview.com/x/9oZo0nQI/
First of all we see in this daily chart the price in a clear downtrend, drawn with a trend channel, in its most recent price price breaks that guideline, and it escapes a bit to the upside.
What am I supposed to interpret? We must assume that the price is making a decreasing maximum to track its "imminent" collapse? Or, is it that the price wants to take a break after more than a month sustained to the speculative panic?
Let's go for the simple way: Supply Vs Demand.
These relatively high volume bars, indicated in comparison to the previous ones, are climatic volumes (stop and / or absorption). In comparison with the previous days, there was a lot of activity that day (05-06 / 02/2018) 2,535K and 2,230K Contracts negotiated respectively, given the price action we can see an absorption of demand by the offer. This unusual behavior of the volume tells us that the downtrend could be running low and we would be facing a potential accumulation process.
Increase the chances that the price goes up !, being the area of $ 6000 as important support for the future. This does not mean that it is time to buy, beware of greed and impulses, be careful of what the media say. Strong hands know that this pattern at a certain level is attractive to place long positions (Buy) and this desired path could take time to materialize. During that scenario the price could oscillate in the range of 8,000 dollars. The future is uncertain, and I want to make it clear that this analysis I assume as a speculative method based on high probability custom techniques, I am not giving advice to buy or sell.
Of course, Bitcoin is very volatile, has not matured enough and is just testing levels of prices that will be areas of future confluences, is just starting intraday pivots and we must not forget that the movements are still susceptible to great shocks even at medium term, I can tell you friend HODLer that this scenario is a break from those who have seen their portfolios fall from 20% to 50% in all this time..
So, If you are going to put up with it, do it intelligently, do not let hope tell you what decision to make, in the world of currency trading, raw materials, and now with cryptocurrencies, feelings like hope, fear and and greed hurt your way of thinking. participate in the market. In the world of money, decisions must be based on objectivity, and not on hunches. Choose the technical analysis you want and you must complement it with your hunger for fundamental news ... go for your bitcoins ..And stay strong!.
At the time of publishing this post, the price of the future of Bitcoin is $ 8700.00.