Good morning somewhere!
Been awol for a couple of weeks, I took my first decent holiday in a while, had a great time and am feeling refreshed!
Jumping into the BTC Monthly chart with July's close tomorrow and it looks kinda ugly if you are a HTF bull.
A monthly SFP at a monthly level, coupled with weekly bearish divergence. If you go through BTC's history of monthly SFP's that closed bearish, all of them resulted in a greater than 20% draw down from the closing price, with most around a 50% drop. If we take the minimum draw down that puts us at the monthly levels around 23k I have marked on my chart from August last year.
All that said the weekly chart still looks bullish and we still haven't tapped into the liquidity above 32400.
Above are a couple of scenarios I could see playing out over the remainder of 2023, I think something like this is likely if we don't see the Blackrock spot ETF approval, if we do than I think BTC can continue it's rally higher... maybe only to take the 32400 liquidity before going lower to allow the bigger players to fuel up before the next bull run... only time will tell.
Into the lower time frames and there's a few levels I'm watching to do business. Price has lost the weekly OB and is rejecting forming a bear flag potentially showing a failed breakout attempt into the weekly OB currently.
27800 is an area I will look to long if we get another drop as market structure is still bullish on the weekly time frame, same goes if we swing the current low and put in some bullish MS.
If we pump up before taking the lows I will be looking to fade the move and short down into the 12HR OB at 27800s.
For now just waiting for levels to be hit and waiting for Monday's range to playout to see if we can get a setup out of it this week.
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Hope everyone has a great week!
Here's a slice of the fun times had on my holiday (excuse the terrible photo quality), might do a post once I upload and edit my photo's and videos!