Great video, just some of my thoughts:

I don't think the Bitcoin v Altcoin narrative is as relevant as it used to be. It's simply not accurate to carry on characterising coins like Ethereum as altcoins to Bitcoin. If you make this distinction, then your assertion that capital, given a significant event, will flow back into Bitcoin, would be more informed. For example, I see you didn't consider that if money were to flow out of the alts, perhaps they would flow back into Ethereum, and not Bitcoin? The point I am trying to make is that your analysis with regard to Bitcoin v Altcoin is too black and white. There is a grey area to be considered.

This point was raised in the last steemit post that you made, but your expectations with regard to the LN is much too fantastical. Implementation of the the LN is still a LONG way out. It is very unlikely that in the short term or medium term, that the LN will be the catalyst for any movement of money back into Bitcoin. Also I think the recent market performance of Raiblocks is an indication of how highly valued fast transaction times, and low fees are. Which perhaps should form part of your analysis as to the direction the market will move in the future.

To your point about Bitcoin financial instruments, I was lost here. If we look at the effect that the CBOE/CMEannouncements had on Bitcoin, yes Bitcoin went on a run, but then what happened after? Bitcoin fell, and generally all the other coins rose, and Bitcoin lost a significant share of its market dominance. If there were to be a Bitcoin ETF, what is to say that Bitcoin's rise would not be followed by a similar, more cripplingly fall in market share? Furthermore, you say that institutional investors would jump into Bitcoin because of financial instruments. However, these instruments may not necessarily be Bitcoin orientated, especially with coins like Ripple making significant waves amongst institutional circles.

To sum up, you're making certain assumptions that do not necessarily have to be true, and you not realising that, makes for a less than informed, holistic analysis.

Keep up the good work.