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I would like to introduce and summarize the result of Ayana T. Aspembitova, Ling Feng, and Lock Yue Chew's research on behavior of Bitcoin and Ethereum users. Their new research, entitled "Behavioral structure of users in cryptocurrency market", has been published in journal Plos One on January 12, 2021.
Their research is important because it shows the differences in behavior between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) cryptocurrency traders that have an effect on the ups and downs of these cryptocurrency prices in the market. It also points out that these differences reflect the basic design of the development of the two cryptos that have influenced their prices.
I would not dig into details about their theory and method. Please consult to their article for more details. I present here only the main points of the research I think important for public, especially cryptocurrency users.
The research is based on Bitcoin transaction data extracted from the Bitcoin blockchain which started from the initial block on January 3, 2009 to block 560,000 on January 25, 2019. For Ethereum they take data from Evgeny Medvedev Ethereum Data Extraction.
After processing and analyzing the two data sets, they formulated four groups of user behavior. The four are as follows:
- Optimists (Group 1) - It is people who invest in crypto, some loyal customers.
- Pessimists (Group 2) - Users who like to sell their coins.
- Positive traders (Group 3) - Users who sell or buy coins but their final balance is positive.
- Negative traders (Group 4) - Users who sell or buy coins but their final balance is negative.
From the same data, researchers then compare them with ideal cases so that they can arrange clusters in the crypto system. From here they can draw the evolution of Bitcoin and Ethereum user's behavior over various periode of times. The results are presented in the chart below.
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| Figure 1. Evolution of Bitcoin and Ethereum User Behavior. Source: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242600.g009 |
The chart shows that the behavior of Ethereum users is more stable than Bitcoin users. The percentage of Ethereum user groups is relatively the same across periods but vary different among Bitcoin users.
When Bitcoin price fell and stabilized, the numbers in each Bitcoin user group are the same. However, when the Bitcoin price bubbles, their behavior change. The group of positive traders is growing, almost 60 percent, and there is almost no pessimist group.
However, after the bubble period, the group of optimists became very small, indicating a loss of optimism after the bubble occurres. Meanwhile, the group of positive traders become very large, almost 80 percent, both in the period after the bubble and winter. In other words, during these two periods, people tend to keep their coins because they might hope that the price would go up again.
The composition of Ethereum users is relatively stable across all periods. They tend to be the opposite of Bitcoin users. Ethereum's positive trader group is actually largewhen the price falls until the price rises and continues to shrink during the bubble and after.
Ayana T. Aspembitova et al concluded:
Although both bitcoin and ethereum are digital tokens that serve as decentralized currency based on blockchain technology, there are crucial differences between them. While bitcoin has positioned itself as an alternative monetary system in the financial market, ethereum has mostly focused on monetising smart contracts. Also, being the first cryptocurrency, bitcoin has been widely used for speculative purposes.
This research provides valid, data-based scientific evidence on how Bitcoin and Ethereum users actually tend to be. This research confirms the view that Bitcoin players are indeed dominated by speculators and are very dependent on price fluctuations in the crypto market.
As Aspembitova notes, the research data does not indicate coin holdings so we can not see whether the change in user attitude is also influenced by the attitudes of big investors or companies. The crypto market, like the stock market in general, is volatile. The actions of big investors often have an effect on the price of the coin and in the end it also affects the behavior of the coin users.
For investors and potential investors, price stability is important for secured investment. In this regard, the stability of the Ethereum user behavior looks even more promising if you want your investment to be safe.
Bitcoin vs Ethereum: Mana yang Terbaik? - 5 Strategi Perilaku
Saya ingin memperkenalkan dan meringkas hasil penelitian Ayana T. Aspembitova, Ling Feng, and Lock Yue Chew tentang perilaku pengguna Bitcoin dan Ethereum. Penelitian mereka, berjudul "Behavioral structure of users in cryptocurrency market", telah diterbitkan di jurnal Plos One pada 12 Januari 2021 lalu.
Hasil penelitian mereka penting karena menunjukkan perbedaan perilaku antara pedagang mata uang kripto Bitcoin (BTC) dan Ethereum (ETH) yang berpengaruh pada naik-turunnya harga kripto tersebut di pasar. Ia juga menunjukkan bahwa perbedaan itu mencerminkan rancangan dasar pengembangan kedua kripto yang turut mempengaruhi harganya.
Saya tak akan menguraikan rincian teori dan metode mereka. Anda silahkan membacanya lebih rinci di artikel mereka. Saya di sini hanya akan menyampaikan poin-poin utama saja.
Penelitian mereka berdasarkan data transaksi Bitcoin yang disarikan dari blockchain Bitcoin yang dimualai dari blok awal pada 3 Januari 2009 hingga blok 560.000 pada 25 Januari 2019. Adapun data Ethereum mereka ambil dari Evgeny Medvedev Ethereum Data Extraction.
Setelah mengolah dan menganalisa kedua data tersebut, mereka merumuskan empat kelompok perilaku penggunanya. Empat kelompok itu adalah sebagai berikut:
Optimis (Grup 1) - Pengguna yang berinvestasi di kripto. Strategi persisten mereka adalah menghimpun dan membeli koin dalam periode satu bulan.
Pesimis (Grup 2) - Pengguna yang menjual koinnya. Mereka tidak membeli koin dan saldo mereka negatif pada periode tertentu yang diteliti.
Pedagang positif (Grup 3) - Pengguna yang kadangkala menjual atau membeli koin tapi saldo akhir mereka menunjukkan positif sehingga punya kecenderungan untuk mengumpulkan koin.
Pedagang negatif (Grup 4) - Pengguna yang kadangkala menjual atau membeli koin tapi saldo akhir mereka menunjukkan negatif sehingga punya kecenderungan seperti kelompok pesimis.
Dari data yang sama, peneliti kemudian membandingkannya dengan kasus ideal sehingga bisa menyusun kluster-kluster dalam sistem kripto. Dari sini mereka bisa bisa memetakan evolusi Bitcoin and Ethereum dalam berbagai masa dari berbagai jenis perilaku kelompok tadi. Hasilnya dipaparkan dalam gambar di bawah ini.
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| Gambar 1. Evolusi Perilaku Pengguna Bitcoin dan Ethereum. Source: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242600.g009 |
Dari bagan itu tampak bahwa perilaku para pengguna Ethereum lebih stabil daripada pengguna Bitcoin. Jumlah kelompok pengguna Ethereum relatif sama hampir di semua periode tapi sangat berbeda di kalangan pengguna Bitcoin.
Dalam periode harga Bitcoin jatuh dan stabil, jumlah di masing-masing kelompok sama. Namun, di saat harga Bitcoin menggelembung, perilaku mereka berubah. Kelompok pedagang positif membesar, hampir 60 persen, dan hampir tidak ada kelompok pesimis.
Namun, setelah periode bubble, kelompok optimis menjadi sangat kecil, yang menunjukkan hilangnya optimisme setelah bubble terjadi. Adapun kelompok pedagang positif menjadi sangat besar, hampir 80 persen, baik pada periode setelah bubble maupun winter. Dengan kata lain, pada dua periode ini, orang cenderung menyimpan koin karena mungkin memiliki harapan bahwa harganya akan naik lagi.
Komposisi pengguna Ethereum relatif stabil di semua periode. Kecenderungan mereka berkebalikan daripada pengguna Bitcoin. Kelompok pedagang positif Ethereum justru besar pada periode harga jatuh hingga harga naik dan terus mengecil ketika bubble terjadi dan setelahnya.
Ayana T. Aspembitova et al menyimpulkan:
Although both bitcoin and ethereum are digital tokens that serve as decentralised currency based on blockchain technology, there are crucial differences between them. While bitcoin has positioned itself as an alternative monetary system in the financial market, ethereum has mostly focused on monetising smart contracts. Also, being the first cryptocurrency, bitcoin has been widely used for speculative purposes.
Penelitian ini memberikan bukti ilmiah berbasis data yang valid tentang bagaimana sebenarnya kecenderungan pengguna Bitcoin dan Ethereum. Penelitian ini meneguhkan pandangan bahwa pemain Bitcoin memang didominasi para spekulan dan sangat bergantung pada fluktuasi harga di pasar kripto.
Sebagaimana dicatat Aspembitova, data penelitian ini tidak menunjukkan kepemilikan koin sehingga kita tidak dapat melihat apakah perubahan sikap itu juga dipengaruhi oleh sikap para investor besar atau perusahaan. Pasar kripto, seperti juga bursa saham pada umumnya, penuh gejolak. Aksi investor besar seringkali berpengaruh terhadap harga koin dan ujung-ujungnya juga mempengaruhi perilaku pengguna koin tersebut.
Bagi para investor dan calon investor, stabilitas harga penting agar investasinya aman. Dalam hal ini, stabilitas kelompok perilaku pengguna Ethereum tampak lebih menjanjikan bila Anda ingin investasi Anda aman.
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