Last autumn, October, 2017 I visited another conference on blockchain and crypto which was massively attended at the moment, by the way, comparing to today’s empty halls. And I approached one presenter, of course, he was an expert in blockchain and crypto, but he really was, and I asked him to give a realistic number of Bitcoin transactions bearing utilitarian goal. He replied with the number of 0.01% of the whole traded volume. Well, I was not surprised as my assumption was about 0.1%.
What does it mean? That means that the rest 99.99% of all Bitcoin transactions, I’m saying Bitcoin and do not count other altcoins transactions, were and are just speculative, other words Bitcoin is not used for buying or selling goods or services, neigher is used for the network utility purpose. What da hack is network utility?! Stay tuned and you will learn about it a bit later in this episode.
Take the fact
Bitcoin hit twenty thousand level in december 2017 taking 350% growth in just 70 days from the same level it is traded right now. Has it hit the bottom? I do not know, but some trading indicators shows it has and it is ready for a reverse. And the most interesting thing is that after a low interest during August, September and October Bitcoin is a hot topic in the news again, so thank you media for pouring some oil into the fading fire. And my personal opinion, as the name of the rubric is Opinion, is very positive about this facts and here is why.
It was obvious to me that $20K for a bitcoin had been irrational and, luckily, I took the opportunity to benefit from it, although I consider myself a starter in investment and trading. And I expect to take another opportunity right now. If you are excited about the opportunity I’m talking about, keep on watching, I’m going to reveal some parts of my strategy.
So the cryptomarket was overhyped and the price was inflated by mass media and manipulators. Yes, despite the fact that Bitcoin capitalization went over $100 billions alone, it is still easy to pump and dump its price. Have your heard that SEC has launched an investigation process about Bitcoin price manipulation suspecting Bitfinex to be involved? Give this video a thumb and if it hits 100 likes, I will make a video report on that case, if you want to know more.
I think it is not correct to track the past price chart and apply those patterns for the future, rather than to apply those patterns accounting different current factors and possible future risks and opportunities that may enter the market. In winter a friend of mine asked me, when Bitcoin will hit $2000 level and I firmly replied never, I gave it between 6500 and 7000. Well, I not a Baba Vanga and am liable to make mistakens. But I still think it will never hit $2000. And no, I will not give promises to eat my dick on a price trigger as some old ill-minded dudes did publicly in theirs twits.
Bitcoin is not what you think!
In february this year when I was standing in a local grocery store queue I heard two random guys from the neighbourhood chatting about Ethereum, and they talk about its price, but they did not say a word about its fundamentals and the technology it hides behind the grooves. And this is common knowledge of the majority of people who bought Bitcoin or Ethereum at that time. They bought a flashy thing hoping to buy a lambo next Monday. And now there are selling to save at least something of their initial investments. My only regret here is that the market was too overhyped. But there is one truth about all markets - market has short memory. Non the less I still believe this overpricing will move the adoption a bit longer as people will be scared not to lose money again. And they will not lose, if they hodl now.
More important is to understand now that Bitcoin is a technology and it takes time to develop and integrate in the current economic system. And as Bitcoin is targeting the global market it is still in its infancy and will require another 9 years to learn how stand firmly on its feet. And each new wave of growth of Bitcoin and cryptomaket can be compared to a toddler who learns how to walk, but falls down after a short run.
Bitcoin is the new digital currency, Bitcoin is the new economic system, Bitcoin is the new global technology, Bitcoin is also a platform to build new type of applications upon it. I bet you have heard about Ethereum as a platform for decentralized applications followed by some overhyped EOS, Tron and less famous Stratis, NEO, WAVES and another dozen of almost unknown platforms. Well, I might make you surprised but Bitcoin is a platform for decentralized applications as well just covering specific use cases which the majority of people and even tech people do not have a hint.
Microsoft Windows was announced by Bill Gates on November 10, 1983. And just Windows 95 introduced many features that have been part of the product ever since, including the Start menu, the taskbar, and Windows Explorer. So it took 12 years for a coordinated and well managed company to come to a product more or less ready for a mass market. How long is it going to take for crypto and blockchain?! We can guess. Do you want to know more about Bitcoin as a platform and the development team ? Let me know in the comments or by hitting the thumbs up.
Took the fact, take the opportunity.
I track updates of several cryptofunds on a monthly basis and I want to share an insight that all of them, all of them are down up to 60-70% who sit with some cash in their portfolio and up to 90% who sit all over in crypto assets. As I mentioned before I was lucky to take some advantage from over hitted market, but I also suffered watching how the rest of my personal portfolio is losing weight month by month, day by day. It was my personal greed to see accounts always green and growing with exponentially in a quarter and that turned me too emotional, as I repeat I’m a newbie in investments and trading. But now I understand that regret comes over unexpected success. And any emotionally high period is always followed by dumps. Well I took the lesson and hope you took it too, so from now I again stay as cool as ice and going to take another even better opportunity from the market when I first came in. And here is a couple of reason why it is even better now.
When the market is noisy and crowded with yealing buyer and sellers there is a high probability risk to spend some dollars on a shit you will never use or buy something overpriced. When I started to search projects for my personal portfolio I took a decision not to buy any of the ICOs or hot coins launching every day that period, but rather to concentrate on the projects that have been in the market for a decent period. And even this approach took hours of my time to find and analyze those projects, but now my self esteem is growing when some of the projects, I found, show resistance to the Bitcoin price or fall less comparing to the rest of the market. I do not want to cover any of those projects right now, but I’m willing to if you ask me in the comments. So come and give yours assumptions in the comments section.
Why do I think that now is even the better time to enter the market? For the last 12 months crypto community has enriched with a lot of new expertise and, probably, doubled or quadrupled meaning that projects with good management, strong technology and wise strategy will start to overcome those who did not manage to meet investors expectations. The number of alternatives to invest has grown, but due to the whole market fall they are traded at their historical lows or even at lower levels from their ICO price. So again I’m not going to give advice and recommendations on what to buy rather would spoiler that I’m going to present another batch of projects reviews I have done during the last 3-4 months. The only my recommendation here is to do your due diligence and start getting small portions of tokens as such opportunity is unique.
Resolution
I must admit that the price went down way below my expectations and the bear market is taking longer than I expected, but also it is important to admit that fact that the events happened during the last 12 month led many serious investors to the market who will stay and who will grow their positions in crypto. If it was obvious that in December the market was overbought, now it is obviously oversold, ICOs who collected 25 billions of dollars are still not ready to present working products or prototypes and the release date may be postponed due to the price fall as they will be rational in hiring new team members and investing in marketing. On the other side, investing is not a get rich fast game, and complex technologies take years to be developed and years to be integrated in the markets. However there are already projects who testing their prototypes with real clients, thus adoption and the new cicle has just started. And yes, regulations. I did not cover much about regulations in this episode as it requires a separate video. To be short, I hardly believe that regulation will manage to retain a global penetration of the blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies as it is already inevitable. They just need to find a way how to enter the game and you personally need to find solution how to keep away from scams and malicious projects, so any regulation help will not ever be required. But that’s another story.
Thank you very much for time. I hope that my opinion gave some good insights for you. If you share my ideas let me know in the comments, if you think the opposite let me know in the comments as well.
You’ve been watching What Da Hack?! channel, the Opinion rubric. I’m its host Boogieman. Subscribe and hit the bell not to miss the next episode. And do get hacked!
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Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the presented analysis is not an investment/financial advice, trading advice or any other type of advice. Presentation owner does not have any responsibility for any decision taken based on the provided content. The content is purely for information purposes and presentation owner does not have any responsibility for any missing or wrong information. Any information included can be used at one's own risk. Moreover, cryptocurrencies are very volatile - do not invest all of your savings in cryptocurrencies.