I honestly don’t know yet but it is time to find out. There has been a fairly significant battle going on between supporters and detractors of Haejin for a while now. Most Steemians who are tuned in to what’s going on with the platform would have seen some of the fallout and it hasn’t been pretty. Just when it seemed to have settled down it has flared back up. I have been meaning to have a closer look at the validity of Haejins Technical Analysis for a while now, both for my own interest and in the interest of potentially helping to settle this dispute.
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The supporters of Haejin claim that he is a Genius. With his Elliot Wave theory Technical Analysis of various different Cryptos there are people who say that he’s made them a ton of money with his price forecasts. If this is true then surely his presence on STEEM is very welcome and he is probably worth the significant rewards he is getting from his upvotes.
The detractors of Haejin claim that anyone who could throw darts at a dartboard would be able to pick profitable Cryptos in this relentless Bull Market. They claim his Technical Analysis is a sham and that he is “Raping the Reward Pool” with an average of maybe 8 high paying posts daily. If this is true then those upvoting him should be educated so that they will stop enabling such abuse.
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It’s a situation where it’s really just one persons (and their supporters) word against another and people seem to be picking sides, so I am proposing that we use a bit of a scientific method to effectively paper trade some of his previous predictions to see if there is any merit in his analysis. It is a technique that I have used before to effectively benchmark and audit tipsters in any field to see if they are worth following.
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The first thing to do is to start out with an open mind and consider that either case may be a possibility. With any kind of Scientific Method there is no room for bias and so it is critical that we start out with a clean slate. What I propose to do is to collect all of Haejins posts over a particular time period – maybe 1 to 3 months – and start making the following notes :-
A. For every instance where he makes a bullish prediction and/or shows a price chart showing an increase, we find the price of the Crypto that matches the Timestamp of his post and we make a paper trade of $1000 USD of that Crypto. We ALSO make a paper trade of $1000 USD at the Total Market Capitalisation of the Crypto market as if it was an Index of all Crypto.
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B. For every instance where he makes an announcement of profit on a previous call we find the price of the Crypto and the Total Market Cap at the time of the post and we will close out both of the $1000 USD paper trades. We will then compare the profitability of the two trades and see whether Haejin has outperformed the broader market.
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C. For any bearish predictions we will do the opposite by shorting $1000 USD of the specified Crypto and shorting the Total Market Cap. I don’t think there are many of these, but it is important to be thorough and have the contingency in place.
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D. Any post where he is showing both increase and decrease scenarios will be considered ambiguous and neutral. We will not record any paper trades against these posts.
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E. Any instance where he has made a prediction but has NOT made a profit announcement in the Time Period we will take the price of the Crypto and the Total Market Cap at the end of the Time Period and consider that this is an Open Interest, to have current profit/loss recorded accordingly.
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What all this will do is determine whether followers of Haejin would have performed better than the broader market, or worse. This is how many hedge fund managers are benchmarked. If Haejin outperforms the broader market then we can agree that he either has some invaluable insight into Crypto Technical Analysis or he is able to influence the market with self-fulfilling predictions. Either way, he is worth following and worth having on STEEM. If he under performs the broader market then we can agree that he adds no real value to the platform and followers would be better off throwing darts at a dartboard than following his predictions.
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I am not normally one to get involved in this sort of personal conflict, but I can see it is a detriment and a distraction for the platform. If I can be blunt I am tired of it and it has gone on for long enough. I think that it is time for it to be resolved and some impartial analysis be done to bring facts into the light. I’m not expecting the die-hards on either side of this argument to ever change their mind (or even support this analysis) but I’m hoping there are enough people with the platforms best interest at heart who will support it.
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