Bitcoin finished Thursday down more than 10%, giving back the key $10000 level for the first time and continuing lower today in Asian trade.
The market is really struggling to catch a break at the moment; with scams, FUD and fuckery littering the headlines at every noisy turn. On the bright side, if you are bullish longer term, longs are really starting to make sense from a risk:reward perspective and I am keeping an eye out for a valid entry/considering a fade. I was planning on pulling the trigger earlier today, but by the time I'd finished the tasks at hand, the buy signal I was looking at on the 4 hour chart had been invalidated and she was on her way down again.
Pair is currently testing below rising trend-line support around 8800, with sellers targeting the Falling Wedge bottom at 8400:
28 day volume peaked in late December and has been declining ever since, so though this move has been long and painful, the end may well be in sight. Margin lending rates at Bitfinex have been incredibly depressed over the past few weeks, with USD yielding barely a third of the historical average. There was a slight pick up in those markets this morning, and that bolsters the case for an impending bottom - this is one of the few truly forward looking indicators around - Bitcoin can't rally without people going long and people can't go long without borrowing US Dollars.
Though I'd like to buy into the wedge floor, I'm prepared to act before then on a valid signal and seriously considering pre-empting any reversal with a lightly levered fade - we've all seen how fast this beast moves when it does finally catch a bid. I'm usually not one for picking bottoms, but long term I'm extremely bullish Bitcoin and crypto; and the declining volume, pick up in lending markets and Falling Wedge formation are all very interesting.
I'm off to muse on that for a little while and will update this post with my entry if/when I pull the trigger. If you want to read more about trading and what's required of a successful trader, I'd highly recommend following my friend and colleague 