Bitcoin Price Prediction August 3rd. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend with huge selling taking the price down to the $460 range a 30% drop due to the Bitfinex hack attack. Strong buying took over at this point as is common in these situations as a massive move out of the lower Bollinger Band range acts like an elastic band as you can see on the 1 day chart below. I predicted a drop below $600 earlier after the recent run up I was expecting a slow downtrend but the hack accelerated the move. A move to $600 for Bitcoin seems likely unless more bad news comes out. At this point I expect consolidation for a time with the price trading between $600 and $500. In the past Bitcoin has traded alongside the S&P I have no clue why there is a correlation but I expect a move lower in the S&P thus taking Bitcoin lower. Taking a look at the chart below we see Stochastic RSI is at 2 and should reverse over the next couple of days. The CCI is at -210 and should recover to the lower range.
It’s all doom and gloom in here, but it’s arguable that if it wasn’t the Bitfinex hack, something else in the next 8-12 weeks might have sparked the same selloff. The market has a way of finding news to justify its internals.
Depending on the uncertainty of what happens to the 120k BTC, I could see this just being a blip on the bull run. It’s unlikely they will be dumped on the open market. More likely they get fenced somehow or sold OTC. Which has some effect on the market, but it’s more complicated. Then again they might catch the thief and cut a deal.
Maybe this is dumb optimism but I see this scenario playing out:
Bitcoin is a honey badger.
Also, the other huge difference between this and the Gox theft, and the possible impacts on the market, is that Gox also participated in artificially inflating the price, which took a long time to deflate through some truly painful multi-year price discovery. No such thing happened with Bitfinex.
The bull run will end the middle of December 2016 if we continue to hover in the $500-$600 price range as price enters the ichimoku cloud on the weekly charts. Also, the year long bull run EMA is a month or so away from switching to the downside.