October is the key to Bitcoin’s Cycles
One of the most important and influential forms of analysis within Gann Analysis is identifying anniversary dates and corresponding weeks and months. Gann was particular in telling his students that knowing when an instrument started trading was as crucial as identifying the dates, weeks, and months that an instrument made an all-time high and an all-time low. For Bitcoin, no month seems to have more importance than October. I consider October to be the ‘birthday’ month for Bitcoin because October 31st is when Satoshi Nakamoto released the whitepaper for Bitcoin. Others may find the birthday for Bitcoin to be when the first transaction was initiated on an open market exchange. Regardless, I believe October to be the most significant month to analyze for Bitcoin. When we measure from October to October, we get a fascinating reading of how Bitcoin performs. Below is a record of Bitcoin’s performance from October close to October close.
October 2010 to October 2011 = +2280.05%
This period saw Bitcoin have the single most significant percentage gain in its history, moving from the October 2010 close of 0.19 to the June 2011 high of 32.89, a +16,694.7% gain.
October 2011 to October 12 = +295.7%
After the end of October in 2011, Bitcoin fell from 3.19 to the November 2011 low of 1.95, a -37.76% drop. From that Nov 2011, low Bitcoin experienced a strong move to the next swing high all the way into August of 2012 before consolidating near 15.23, a +673.9% gain.
October 2012 to October 2013 = +1845.7%
Bitcoin rose from the October 2012 close of 9.92 to the Mt. Gox high in February 2013 of 267.07%, a +2608.8% gain before experiencing it’s first long term bear market.
October 2013 to October 2014 = +68.5%
Even though the first large bear market occurred in 2013, Bitcoin still closes up over 68% from October 2013 to October 2014. There was an initial rise from the October 2013 close of 198.04 to a high of 1234.65 in December of 2013 (+526.6%). One of the fastest and most significant losses in value for Bitcoin occurred in 2014 when Bitcoin dropped nearly -93% from the December 2013 high to just 92.74 in February 2014 – -93% in 3 months.
October 2014 to October 2015 = -3.2%
This is the only time in Bitcoin’s October close to October close history that a loss is recorded, and depending on the exchange and data provided, it is registered as a marginal gain at +0.8%. Regardless, we can see the resilience in Bitcoin’s price and bullishness by posting a relatively flat close between October 2014 and October 2015. There was a drop from 33.67 down to 157.29 (-58.8%) in January of 2015, but it stabilized that same month by recovering up to 206. It remained in that range until October of 2015.
October 2015 to October 2016 = +109.8%
There was a gradual and persistent rise from October 2015 to October 2016, with the biggest gain occurring when price moved from 327 to 603.37 (+85.9%) in 2016. Relatively quiet but bullish price action throughout 2016.
October 2016 to October 2017 = +742.5%
Massive and robust bull move from October 2016 to October 2017. Nothing more really needs to be said about this time period.
October 2017 to October 2018 = +10.9%
This was the public participation phase of the euphoric rise in Bitcoin, where it reached the current all-time high of the coveted 20k value area. From the October 2017 close of 5733.95 prices rallied up +244.7% to the December 2017 and all-time high of 19870.62. We then saw the massive and longest-lasting bear market in cryptocurrency history. What is interesting is that even though the 2018 bear market was disastrous, from October 2017 to October 2018, Bitcoin still posted a +10 gain.
October 2018 to October 2019 = ? +27.9%
The current daily close (October 22nd, 2019) is resting around the 8229 value area. After October 2019, Bitcoin suffered one of the fastest and largest drops in its history, falling from 6100 in November 2018 to 3100 in December 2018. We’ve since seen Bitcoin recover a large portion of that move. If October were to close today, we would see Bitcoin post a +27% gain from October 2018’s close.
So what should we garner from this information? It’s simple: Bitcoin has experienced only large gains or relatively smooth moves from October to October. Even if we were to see Bitcoin close October around the 6400 value area, it would still be again (albeit, minimal) from 2018’s value area. Out of the last 9 Octobers, we can anticipate some extremely bullish moves in the future. Below is a summary of the moves of the past 9 October periods.
2010 – 2011 = +2280.5%
2011 – 2012 = +295.7%
2012 – 2013 = +1845.7%
2013 – 2014 = +68.5%
2014 – 2015 = -3.2%
2015 – 2016 = +109.8%
2016 – 2017 = +742.5%
2017 – 2018 = +10.9%
2018 – 2019 = +27.9% (as of October 22nd, 2019)