You might've been preparing for an end of the year really and a following bear market after that, expecting that the market moves similarly like in 2017. I was speculating on this too just recently in a post. Though now I might be taking my words back, because I just learned something that I hadn't taken into account...
Bitcoin market cycles are getting longer
And this is the case whether measured from Bitcoin mining reward halving to market top, or market bottom to market top, or even market top-to-top. What this means, is that we won't reach the market top at the end of this year, if cycles keep lengthening.
I first encountered this concept from watching DataDash and with further search I found the video below where Benjamin Cowen explains the concept in great detail. If you're planning to take advantage of market cycles, this is a must watch. Heck, I think everyone should watch this.
Now, if you didn't watch the video, I'll lay out the brief explanation according to Bitcoin's "cycle theory".
Cycle lengths (from market bottom to market top)
- 325 days (when measured from first candle of price history)
- 742 days
- 1067 days
- 1059 days (confirmed length, but probably still ongoing)
These numbers are picked form daily chart so they're more accurate than the monthly on the picture.
The 4th cycle is confirmed to be at least 1059 days from the bottom of 10th of December 2018 to the latest all-time-high on 8th of November 2021. However, if the history repeats (which obviously isn't a guarantee), then the 4th cycle is still ongoing and we're just waiting for the market to top.
Cycle lengths (from mining rewards halving to market top)
- 366 days (28th Nov 2012 to 29th Nov 2013)
- 525 days (9th Jul 2016 to 16th Dec 2017)
- 546 days (confirmed: 11th May 2020 to 8th Nov 2021)
So, measured from halving, the length of a cycle has already increased.
I listed the halving dates above because I thought it was interesting that the halving has occurred roughly every 4 years. Though the exact date has been shifting towards the beginning of the year. This explains how cycles have lengthen yet still having topped toward the end of the year in 2013 and 2017. Have to mention though that the first market top was seen 8th of June in 2011, so the argument of EOY market top every 4 years isn't supported when looking full history.
Everyone got it wrong?
Many analysts had been saying that the market top is reached at the end of 2021 and the other camp is going with the super cycle theory. The super cycle theory is somewhat inline with what I think that the bull market is going to extend into 2022. Though I don't agree that we're going to reach 500k Bitcoin this bullrun. That seems like hopium to me. Could happen for sure, but when an asset gets bigger, the volatility decreases and it's harder to move by similar multipliers like when it was small. Something massive new buying would have to happen in a short period. So I would say, unlikely.
Super cycle theorists had been saying that "this time is different with an extended bullmarket into 2022". Funny thing is though, that if that were to happen, nothing would change – Bitcoin cycles would lengthen and history would repeat.
I could still see a small rally at EOY, but I would be cautious of a fake top that "confirms" the repeat of 2017. I would not sell too much at EOY unless we go on to a parabolic mode suddenly. I don't see it happening though, but of course I'm happy if we do.
Well, what do you think? Are we onto something here? Personally, the argument for lengthening cycles is convincing and in my opinion the most likely scenario to play out, so I'm preparing for the possibility that the bull market will extend into 2022. How much? Maybe I'll speculate that in another post.
