If you're a long-term holder of Bitcoin, or even someone who has invested in Bitcoin recently, then you probably feel like you've been waiting for the Lightning Network upgrade for an eternity. Afterall, altcoins are quickly being adopted and filling the need for a currency with fast transaction times and low fees, making Bitcoin feel less practical than it once did. How will Bitcoin ever become adopted by commercial businesses and customers if transaction times are long and expensive? In turn, how will the price of Bitcoin continue to rise when there are so many alternatives out there apparently able to do a better job? This doesn't just concern investors, it also concerns those who want a decentralized cryptocurrency to replace, or at least work as an alternative to, fiat currencies issued by banks and governments.
It feels like a lot of doom and gloom on the Bitcoin front.
It occurred to me yesterday that maybe the delay is actually a good thing. Okay, 'good' might be a too stronger word. How about "not that bad".
Let me explain.
If you're a seasoned crypto investor, you've probably heard (or read) this saying a million times: "Buy the rumor, sell the news."
It's a saying that has proven multiple times to be true. This is indeed how investors behave a lot of the time. When a crypto coin says it's going to do something special, people buy up, and as soon as the upgrade or news is out, people sell. In a way it's counter-intuitive, but that's the crypto market.
Currently, the rumor for Bitcoin is that the Lightning Network upgrade is coming, and once it is implemented, fees will drop significantly and transactions will become near instantaneous.
What are the other announcements then? What happens after that? Well, as far as I can see, this is the only significant upgrade in the near future for Bitcoin. Sure, once Bitcoin is usable and is capable of fast and cheap transactions we might start to see announcements from big companies saying they'll accept Bitcoin as a payment option. But this outcome relies on big businesses actually adopting Bitcoin first. Due to volatility and the increasing price, Bitcoin has already proven that it's not a payment option a lot of people are willing to use yet. It's going to take a while longer for the price to stabilize enough so that we see less growth in the price, leading people to using the currency instead of 'hodling' it.
It's the lack of announcements that make me wonder if a drawn-out implementation of the Lightning Network might actually be a good thing. As long as there are rumors Bitcoin will become cheaper and faster, there may be people buying the rumor.
Further, let's not forget that Bitcoin has a lot of talented developers and that professional software development done correctly should be thoroughly tested before being used on a wide scale by millions of users. Bitcoin's market cap is currently $256,988,841,900... which is a lot of money dependant on the software being reliable and bug-free.
For these reasons, I'm starting to think that a delayed Lightning upgrade might be okay. Not great, just okay.