Bitcoin turning points

After a bit long but necessary introduction (see previous articles here: The Newest Bitcoin User Manual) we are closer to the essence of the whole article, now. Probably you've seen on Internet people using such terms like “crypto winter (It's coming!)” or “nuclear winter in crypto (It's going to be nuclear this time for sure!)” etc. But what does it mean actually? When the winter begins? When it ends? How long it lasts? What determines it just began? Are there any other seasons? I was wondering how one can precisely describe specific and repeatable period of Bitcoin life so everybody else can understand it in the natural manner and benefit from it. Then I realized that Earth seasons are so similar to these specific periods of Bitcoin life that it was natural to call them “Bitcoin seasons”. They act the same way as the nature in our real world and, what's even more strange as you'll see later, they are correlated (that is some specific price actions occur at some specific Earth months)! So let's check this out and systematize this topic.

The basis for determining specific areas is the price. All Time Highs (ATHs) and local dips indicate main resistance and support levels. If you can see some breakouts or breakdowns on trend lines, it means that something new has just begun and something old has just ended.

BTW, have you noticed that instead of “All Time Lows” (ATLs) I used “dips” term? It's because Bitcoin ATL was formed at the very beginning of its existence and the price never came back below it! So this in combination with progressive higher highs confirm we are in the strong uptrend and it looks like all these “deaths” of Bitcoin, I know it's hard to believe, are just deep price corrections on the multi-year way up.

When you look at the next picture (Pic.5), you will see basic levels of the price action on Bitcoin. Supports are marked with horizontal blue dash lines and main resistances with yellow dash lines. Every resistance line here touches local ATH (levels: $0.49, $31.90, $1177.19 and $19764.51) and every blue line indicates specific support (levels: $0.24, $6.52, $314.62 and $6338). Position of yellow levels should be understandable as they just touch highest points at peaks, but the latter need some more explanation. It'll be discussed in details later.

Let's stay with Pic.5 a bit longer. Also vertical lines were added here at highest (green markers) and lowest (red markers) points of biggest price shifts. So what do we have here? 2 most significant ATHs were respectively on 30th of November 2013 and 15th of December 2018. Let's assume for simplicity both of them touched the Heaven Line in December as 30th of November is “adjacent” to 1st December. Next we have low markers respectively on 14th of January 2015 and 15th of December 2018. A similar situation occurs here as January is close to December in this case, too. The conclusion is that the most important things for BTC price happen usually at the turning of the years. So probably around Christmas you have to be cautious because it may be just an end of the bull market (if you are currently in it) or an end of price falling (if you are currently in a bear market). On the same picture we have also one green marker at ATH point in November and one red marker at dip; there is also one more ATH in June. And again, 2 of them are close to December, which is very interesting, but as they are in the Dark Age we can assume their wage in our reasoning is smaller. Now, you understand what I meant saying that Earth and Bitcoin seasons are correlated.