Today Bias: Neutral
Next Week Bias: Bearish
Next Month Bias: Neutral
BTC/USD Analysis - Elliot Wave Perspective
Yesterday, I wrote that I expect consolidation and range trading throughout the day between $6,000 - $6,200 in order to reset BTC/USDT's technical indicators towards the overbought levels in order for another attempt downwards with a potential Elliot Wave high of ~$6,250. I also expected any attempt to buy in a long position will have to be accompanied by using 5-minute/15-minute charts for quick bounce catches.
Today, my Elliot Wave analysis was correct with Wave 4 hitting the ~$6,250 high. The price action following shows a large rejection off of this resistance level right to the support I drew yesterday. This prediction became 100% true and correct.
Profit taking started at the $5,800 - $5,900 level for some retail traders as depicted by the larger lower wick shadow currently. If this support holds, a long entry for a bounce attempt to $6,010 would be a day-trade target. However, if support breaks, we can expect further downside activity towards the mid-$5,000 levels.
I am leaning neutral today as a bullish divergence has started to form on the higher time-frames. Additionally, there has been a large increase in shorts on margin/leverage over the past few days. Please keep in mind a "short-squeeze" is possible. A short squeeze refers to a jump in a stock's price, forcing a large number of short sellers to close their position, which in effect pushes the price even higher.
From a traders perspective, I always lean bias towards a bearish sentiment as the overall trend is still definitely bearish. A target at $5,500 - $ 5,800 range I believe would start to interest buyers. We traders call this the "demand zone" where interest from the majority starts to buy a certain asset with greater volume and pressure.
I do believe we have one more leg downwards. From an Elliot Wave perspective, I do believe we have started the larger 5th wave structure in an ongoing 5-3-5 simple zig-zag correction. Therefore, expect any upwards rally to be seen as another shorting opportunity until the 5th wave structure is complete in the mid-$5,000. An update will be shared again tomorrow.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/GRvtFWrR-BTC-USDT/
^Press the "Play" button on the chart to show the progression in time. ^
BTC/USD Analysis - Indicators Perspective
Yesterday, I mentioned that I did expect a weak bullish bounce towards the $6,100 - $6,200 region as the 4-hour RSI and Stochastic indicators are oversold. In trading, we call this "breathing in before breathing out." The indicators need to reset towards the higher end of its ranges in order for price to try and continue its downwards trend by having another sell-off. This is exactly what occurred towards the $6,250 region and finally breathed out.
Expect consolidation/sideways pattern action for most of the day with the indicators resetting once again.
BTC/USD Analysis - Pattern Perspective
The technical picture illustrates a breakdown from the bearish formation with higher activity and lesser time taken to form. Again, the more BTC/USDT consolidates without heavy buying pressure to breakout of bearish formations, the more likely the downtrend will continue.
Performance Analysis for the Week 6-16-2018 to 6-22-2018 for My Service:
Total Trades: 14
Total Wins: 9
Total Losses: 5
Total Win%: 64%
Total BTC% Gain: +20.9%
Total USDT% Gain: +8.3%
For exact entry price, take profit levels, and stop loss recommendations for BTC/USDT, visit https://cryptochoe.com.