As you already know, the market has been in a bit of a downturn. Bitcoin has dropped over 13% ($2,600 to $2,250) in the last four days, with other alt coins dropping even more (LTC -17%, DASH -23%, XRP 30%, ETH 31%). There are many reasons surrounding this, with the main culprit being the Bitcoin hard fork on August 1st.

Bitcoin Hard Fork

The main problem with Bitcoin right now is the transaction times. I'm sure you've noticed whenever you buy or sell Bitcoin, it can take anywhere from 20 minutes to over 1 hour. That's because on average, it can only handle 4 transactions per second. They're trying to implement Segwit 2X so the scaling problem can be solved so that the block size is larger and more transactions can go through. This will make things smoother so there's not a huge jam. In order to implement Segwit, there needs to be at least 95% of Bitcoin miners signaling for it (since they confirm the transactions going through the network). There's currently less than 50%. So what does this mean? It means that a blockchain split is likely to happen because they cannot agree on a scaling solution regarding how to make the transactions quicker.

Future of Bitcoin

If a split happens, that can mean one of two things. Either we'll see a huge crash, or a huge rally. One of the reasons people believe in Bitcoin is because there's only 21 million coins that can ever be made, and they see it as a great investment. But if the blockchain splits, then there will be two Bitcoin and a total of 42 million available. This is something that investors do not want.

So if the chain stays together, I see the price going up because all of this panic will subside. But if the chain does split, there's a huge possibility that we'll see a further crash, and investors jumping from the "old" Bitcoin to the "new" Bitcoin, which could be anywhere from $1 to $20 (similar to the Etherium split with Etherium Classic). If this does happen, it'll be a great buying opportunity for everyone.

With the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin, I see us in a bear market short-term. Investors are either withdrawing their currency for fiat, panic selling, or buying at the dips. There's already been a few articles from big investing firms talking about where Bitcoin is going in the future. I mentioned the Goldman Sachs article in my recent blog post where they stated Bitcoin could fall to $1,800 in the short-term then rally above $3,000 thereafter. I believe this is the case we're seeing now and would recommend staying out of the market until after August 1st.

Best Coin to Invest/Hedge Your Bets?

If you still want to invest and are looking for the best performer, I would recommend Litecoin. Throughout this downturn, Litecoin has only declined 21% from it's high in the last month ($53 to $42). This is compared to ETH (-35%), DASH (-31%), and XRP (-47%). Litecoin has remained steady and has the lowest percentage lost today (-6.37%), next to Bitcoin (-4.3%). On the chart below, you can see on the days with big volume, the price rose. Whenever the price declined, there was normal volume. This shows that big investors are holding onto their shares and aren't selling anytime soon.

In a market with this much volatility, it pays to be one step ahead. That means setting your stops, and buying when opportunities present themselves. I'm using this opportunity to buy more steempower and take advantage of the cheap price. Other than that, I currently don't have any investments (I'm hedging my bets with fiat until the dust settles). I hold over $3,000 in USD and will wait until Bitcoin gets closer to $1,800, or until August 1st passes, before I start buying. If we do see a crash after August, we can look at late August/September for the rally. With that said, be smart with your investments, and never put in what you can't afford to lose.