I agree that you should definitely convert whatever you are not willing to lose to USD. I predict that even if segwit is activated there will be a dip in price in bitcoin so it would be smart to buy back in with your usd at that time. However, if there is a hard fork and there is 2 bitcoins like you mentioned BTC will take a huge hit and anybody that didn't convert to fiat will be sorry. This was a great post and you really went in depth, the only thing I have a question about is when you said that altcoins will rise in price in one of the scenarios. Do you mind explaining why you believe that?