Great post.

I find the ending diagonal scenario pretty persuasive (especially because the upper trendline is so well defined) and have analysed it myself. I think 4.9k is a sensible estimate and that price will struggle to go any lower but you never know.

Another idea I had was what if this is just the beginning? What if we're in the W of a WXY correction? We could see wave X start at 4.9k, providing lots of false hope, and Y would extend well into next year.

Also, that's a curious coil at the end of the current wave, almost like an expanding triangle with an E-wave throw over.