It's been a long time since I posted anything on Steemit...perhaps because we've been looking at nothing but downwards bear market for the last year....Not really great when the daily blog goes something like a Robin Williams sketch....
"the market out there will be depressing and shitty, continued by some depressing and shitty selloffs in May. 2nd half of 2018, might continue shitty with a chance of crappy and pissy coming from the SEC"...
That's about all I have to say about that ....
Anyway, I've dusted off my ledger, updated blockfolio (new version is doing my head in), found a ton of crazy crypto I didn't realise I had and been quite happy to see my ARK and NEO rewards have been building nicely whilst I've been working on my short game.
It has been a long time since I posted, so hopefully all images and links come out fine in the end (click to open in new tab for larger images is best). Do leave comments if the formatting or anything isn't right though. Thanks!
Disclaimer: This is post only contains my personal views and opinions and is intended as entertainment only. It is not financial advice. You should always do your own research and only invest what you can lose to afford.
My plan is to begin operation "Trade Offensive" immediately so I thought I'd share my thoughts and plans.
Bitcoin:
Historically, every bubble in Bitcoin has resulted in a lot of people feeling stupid for buying at all-time highs, but then feeling even stupider for buying high and selling low just before watching the next bubble take the price up a few thousand %....(imagine being so stupid as to buy for $29 in the 2011 bubble...what an idiot eh...).
Two great recent posts on this:
Forbes: "It's Not Over: A Brief Bitcoin Crash History Lesson"
Reddit User u/BitcoinCashKing: "Comparison of 4 bitcoin bubbles - revisited - bonus awesome summary in that thread by yours truely :D
Bitcoin Price:
Based on what I'm saying above, my personal opinion (definitely not financial advice), is that I don't really care what price it is, as long as it's under $4k I think there's a good chance it'll make higher ATHs (and because, well... ask Tim Draper).
We've a lot more up and down to get off our chest in the market though, so here's what I'm thinking for BTC.
Many, many people have been trapped in BTC since the dramatic price crashes at the start of 2018 and thought they'd get more than $6k-$10k per BTC back eventually.....urgh....then we dropped to the $3,500 - $4,000 realms and now they are going to take the highest they can get and promise never to touch crypto again if they can just get $5k-$6k per BTC.
They might get their chance with Bakkt planned to launch on the 24th of Jan or other good signs, but it's just too easy for hardcore traders.... I think there will be some heavy shorting and price manipulation of BTC if hype builds a 5-6k BTC price, so I won't be shocked if it plummets again.
I've heard many serious traders say that they will be looking for $1,500 and would be filling their bags at that price. I would love to hit that number, but very much doubt we can. Best we could probably expect is $2k or if lower than that, the fear of a proper collapse of BTC would be weighing on my mind(don't forget that some still contest the current BTC implementation).
What I'm doing:
Buying the odd little sum of BTC while we're under $4k. Not strict DCA'ing but just a little when I can. Buying and trading as much NEO as I can with my BTC.
This is very high risk, but I'm happy with my long positions on NEO, so I'm swing trading NEO to earn BTC and capture the odd extra NEO. Unless you think NEO is dead, for a fixed supply blockchain currency, anywhere under $10 seems reasonable.
I'm not using complicated trading strategies and am purely relying on:
• Pitchfork tool and related strategies - I basically move the indicator based on new information and enter/exit exactly when top/bottom of the channels are reached (good video on this HERE)
• Simple Moving Averages (SMA) - just the facts ma'am
• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) - adds extra weight to recent price data so moves faster than the SMA
• The odd peek at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD - just to make me doubt myself before a trade.....
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) - more witchcraft that makes you miss the really awesome wins but stops the really bad losses occasionally
Below you can see my latest setup on the NEO/BTC 4hr chart (tracking Binance)
As you'll see from the white horizontal line, the Pitchfork takes care of a lot of work for me. The EMA, SMA and all other tools were completely useless and my competition in the market seems to be entering/exiting trades at exact points as I move the Pitchfork to compensate for new highs or lows.
It's really not that complicated when you watch the video I shared earlier!
I've been at this since 190k Satoshis and it's going well so far on this recent uptrend (long may that continue!).
I'm going to update the blog as frequently as I can but at least as I open and close trades as I will update the NEO chart above throughout so you can see how I'm doing.
If I do really well, I might even start doing some type of NEO giveaway, so send me good karma, and keep watching for updates :)
Thanks for reading and may the force be with us all!
Signup HERE to earn some free Bitcoin, whilst the earning is good! (increases payouts when the price is lower ;) )
