We've been through some troubling times with BTC, and every one of us is wondering if trying times are behind us.
I believe they are.
Let us all accept that 2017 was a crazy year, especially second half of it. All the media attention made the hype for cryptocurrencies escalate to unimaginable heights. Of course, price surge follows hype when cryptos are in question. We've got used to profit amounts indicated in THOUSANDS of percents. Again, let us all accept that we've become spoiled.
Around the beginning of festive season (aro. 20th-21st Dec. 2017), we've witnessed BTC's price fall from as high as $19,800 down to as low as $10,800. No one exactly knows what was the cause. Was it because the whales cashed out, or because the big corporations trading BTC were taking their cash before holidays, intending to record the profits before the new year, or something else entirely. Whatever the reason was, seeing BTC "melt down" about 50% was scary. I mean shitting-your-pants kind of scary...
I will not go into details about my theories on the subject. The fact is we are not seeing crazy price surges in BTC like we used to see, and we probably won't see in near future -if ever. Don't depress. Believe me that's healthier. We could NOT live in constant fear of BTC being dumped at a random time by some groups and lose most of our money overnight. Now we're left alone by ourselves (the "little guy"). No one is driving prices up like a bull on the loose anymore (pun intended). Also all the timid new crypto-buyers (I don't know how to call them) are gone. We're left alone, guys. People who believe in blockchain and its pioneer crypto, BTC. People who are in it for the long term.
So, long story short, I believe BTC have entered a phase where its VALUE is increasing step by step, in a HEALTH trend.
Below image shows my short-term trend lines. I see 2 main probable scenarios:
Scenario 1 - YELLOW LINES - We'll see an up-trend which has the support of 45-degree-incline up, also struggling to break $15,5k level. This trend ends in around first hours of 7th Jan. (UTC).
Scenario 2 - RED LINES - Same trend as Scenario 1, but shorter term. This trend shows a strong resistance at around $15,2k level, and inclined to end around in the morning of 6th Jan. (UTC).
No matter which scenario, if not any else, rolls out, it is crucial constantly to watch the support level. If the support line is strongly broken, then we should re-analyze. I say "strongly", because we should NOT mix sagging with breaking. Some deviations might occur, but support should hold, in general.
Also the resistance levels should be watched as the price moves near them. If the price smashes the resistance lines, we'll make another analysis.
Finally, even if any of these scenarios would about to hold, the situation MUST be reassessed once the trend lines of both scenarios converge (on 6th Jan, not 7th).
To conclude, I think it's safe to say that most probably BTC price would stay between support and resistance levels shown on the image. Like I've said, such trend is very healthy, and provides a healthy and STABLE return on the investment.
Feel free to leave your comments on my assessment, or yours. No single person could ever foresee all the future exactly how it would unfold. So, it is best to exchange ideas, and not just currencies.
Best regards.
DG