Dmitry Perepelkin, an analyst and author of an educational course on trading, tells about the current situation on the market.
As a result of halving, the pressure of miners on the market will decrease. Moreover, miners need a price increase to maintain profitability.
However, some players will capitulate and sell their coin reserves, which may trigger a drop in the area of $8000. After the second halving in 2016, the price really sank strongly for a month, after which it began to grow steadily. But this time the market landscape is completely different — players have various derivatives at their disposal, including options that allow them to insure risks.
As long as there is a high correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, the price of bitcoin is likely to follow the traditional market.
Fundamentally, all markets now depend on actions related to the policy of injecting money into the economy. Confidence in the future — this is what determines the mood of major players that affect the quotes.
Judging by the high interest rate of lending margin positions on Bitfinex, the market hype is still held. For the period from 14 to 19 may, the daily interest rate was strictly in the range of 0.02%-0.1%.
The expressed upper bound tells us that the major player absorbed most of the market demand with its offer. In other words, it controlled and injected liquidity into the market.
This is a tipping point for bitcoin. Breaking through and fixing 1/2-day candles below the $9000 level will determine the further short-term movement of the market.