Announcement:
Users can take their existing BTC and split them into BTC1 (the current version of BTC) and BTC2 (segwit 2x version of BTC) using the token manager:
After the fork, BTC1 will be convertible to BTC and BTC2 will be convertible to B2X. Currently, BTC1 is trading at roughly .75 BTC, and BTC2 is trading at roughly .25BTC. I expected BTC2 to trade closer to .1BTC for a few reasons:
- If there is no fork (unlikely, but non trivial), then BTC2 tokens will be destroyed and BTC1 will convert to BTC
- More and more people originally in the NY agreement are pulling out
- BCH is doing very poorly, and it is a working version of B2X
Suppose you had 100 BTC and wanted to sell off your BTC2. You would first split your 100 BTC into 100 BTC1 and 100 BTC2, then you would sell your BTC2 for BTC (it trades on the USD and BTC pairs), so now you'd have (assuming you get roughly the listed prices) 25 BTC and 100 BTC1. After the fork, the BTC1 would convert to BTC and you would receive 25 B2X for holding BTC, so you would have 125 BTC and 25 B2X. If you think B2X will trade at < 1/3 of the current BTC chain (.25 is 1/3 of .75) then you could make this trade and expect to profit. And in the unlikely event that there is no fork, you would get 25 BTC for nothing.
I think there is a surer route of profiting
I plan to split my BTC between multiple exchanges and my trezor. Exchanges already set the precedent of granting forks on August 1st -- FUCK coinbase -- and because there are issues with replay protection we probably won't be able to transfer in or out for some time, meaning each exchange will be a closed system for a short period. This means inefficient prices that we can arb. The downside is keeping coins on exchanges, but I'd almost prefer it than risk transferring coins afterwards with fear of no replay protection.
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