We present you an article translation about Bitcoin analysis from the market from Omkar Godbole analyst (Omkar Godbole). In the article he gave his prediction for the development of the situation in the market cryptocurrency: technical analysis shows that today Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck in a narrow price range (about $ 550) between long-term key moving averages and can prepare for a breakthrough.
However, there is still one problem: whether to find out which way the price will move, on the bull or the bearish side?
At time of writing, BTC trades at $ 8,760 between the 50 day moving average (MA) (at $ 8.287) and the 100-day moving average (MA) at $ 8,837.
Sale of assets from the maximum on May 5 (9,990 dollars) stops on Saturday around 50-day moving average (MA). In addition, the 50-day MA also acts as a strong support level on Monday. Meanwhile,
in both cases, a rebound from the 50-day moving average (MA) stops around the resistance of the 100-day moving average (MA).
This dynamic was observed over the last three days setting the 50-day moving average (MA) as the main support level, and the 100-day moving average (MA) as a significant resistance, and the breakthrough of this zone tends to set the tone for the next move of BTC.
Daily chart
On Monday, BTC formed a doji-candle pattern that indicates market uncertainty. However, if you analyze a situation with a sell-off background from the May 5 high ($ 9,990), then the doji is more likely to signal doubt among the bear (or depletion bearish). Thus, the bearish view is instantly neutralized.
Today's close (UTC) above the 100-day moving average (at 8,837 US dollars) will signal the bullish spread of the doji and an upside break in the narrow price range. Meanwhile, closing below the 50-day MA (at $ 8.287) will confirm a downward fall in this trading range and form a bearish continuation of the doji, ie Sales from recent highs of $ 9,990 will resume.
Nevertheless, the bullish breakout opportunity (or turn bullish doji) still looks low, as the bulls face a difficult task, shown in the graph below.
Graph 4 hours
In the chart above, the downtrend line resistance is about $ 8,810, followed immediately by another barrier, $ 8,910 (resistance of the developing channel).
Taking into consideration the moving average direction (50, 100-wax MA) looking south (bear support), the BTC bull tends to have to try to convincingly overcome resistance around $ 8,900.
Note that the bears will get other points that benefit them by pushing the 50-candle moving average (MA) below the 200-candle moving average (MA), completing the bearish crossover.
The 5 day moving average (MA) and the 10 day moving average (MA) (see daily chart) also support the bear.
What will happen in the future?
A recurrent failure near the downward trend line observed on the 4 hour chart is likely to lead to a decline to the 50-day MA, which is located at $ 8,287.
However, only daily closing (in UTC) below the 50-day moving average (MA) would mean a revival of sales from recent highs to $ 9 990 and allowing even more down to 7787 dollars (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally with the minimum April Fools for a maximum of May 5), or even up to 7698 dollars (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from advance from July low to 2015 December 2017 high).
On the other hand, a convincing move above $ 8,910 (obstacle to a wider channel) could lead to a move to the next resistance level of $ 9,390.