Hello people,
I consider myself to be fairly decent at predicting market movements, and I just want to share couple predictions of mine for the rest of the 2018 year. Stocks are going to fall. Cryptocurrency will flourish. I wouldn't expect cryptocurrency market to be as bullish as our previous one any time soon, however, the tide has turned it seems.
Moneys in overseas must come back home soon. Whales are getting full off of their main course, stocks, and must be seeking for some desserts by now. So sells your stocks; buy bitcoin. That is what sperm whales would do; that is what I would do; that is what you should do.
I would keep bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for the next 6 months. I would short stocks for the next 3 months, especially the ones that had a stellar year. Some suggestions are Korean stocks. Stocks will all fall but the question is, which is the best to short? As for bitcoin, I’d be surprised if it reach past its previous high; the safe bet is to sell before reaching the previous high- it will most likely fall again before breaking past it.
I am not sure which country will go crazy for bitcoin this time, perhaps India or none at all, that I am not sure, but it seems like a general human tendency for the people of the same country, especially true for knit-tight countries, to fall under "group mentality" and contribute in creating massive bull-runs. Naturally so, as we are largely influenced by others around us. So, it would be important to keep an eye on the global trends. Too bad I have only a limited access to the rest of the world.
I tend to make mistakes in thinking that others must also be seeing and feeling as I do. The best way to predict the market is to put yourself in the position of those who move the market, not the general population if there exist other entities that have greater influence. I think not thinking this way is a pitfall of the general population that the “other entities” utilize. Common people don't move the market; trust me. The general population is easy to be deceived and deceived, not understanding this you will not beat the market. Who wouldn't in the rational mind not capitalize on a sheep when they can get away with it without doing any harm? It is a fair game after all.
But this seems like a healthy market behavior. The economy is better off this way looking from the big pictures of things. No losers here, it is just that some get more out of it while some get less; we get different size pieces according to how much thinking we put into it, but all gets a piece. That is unequal but fair, as the natural orders of things.
When in doubt, do the opposite of what the general population is doing or feeling- this is the big rule of thumb. Patterns don't last long before others catch on; what is consistent is following the money; what is better is leading the money.
Good luck,
Daniel