Price: ~$9,900
I’d like to begin where I left off in yesterday’s update:
“A trip to the 125 EMA & 1.618 fib is possible if price is unable to get back in the daily cloud soon. While these have been strong supports to this point (6 tests), continued tapping on them without upward momentum can only happen so many times before eventually breaking down. In the event of breakdown, a retest of the local bottom (~$9K) is on the table, and 200 EMA & 1 fib if necessary.”
24HR:
Despite the Tether FUD today, technicals always precede news & saw the dip as a possibility. Sure enough cloud resistance was powerful and eventually the 125 EMA & 1.618 fib gave out and everything above remains true.
For perspective below notice that the 1.618 fib has been support since early December. Like when the 2 fib broke, the 1.618 will undoubtly become strong resistance if price remains below it. In the event that the 1.618 fib remains resistance, price will likely need to find its way to the 1fib and or 200 EMA for the next areas of strong support.
1M:
Another thing to be keeping an eye on, especially tomorrow, is the January monthly close. January has not been kind to BTC, clearly seen in price & RSI. At the moment price is currently around December’s open, it is vital for price to close at or above December’s open, or another round and harsher round of selling may occur. Finally, take notice that price is currently being supported by the monthly Tenkan & Kijun; dropping below will create hard resistance at these levels.
Prognosis:
BTC should be in line for an important monthly close tomorrow, staying above December’s open and the monthly Tenkan & Kijun will be important to avoid another round of panic selling. This said however, the technicals remain weak as BTC continues to break important support levels that in turn become hard resistances. For bulls to have a chance, it must begin with getting back over holding support at the 125 EMA & 1.618 fib. In the event that bears continue to dominate the market, the 200 EMA & 1 fib are next areas of support.
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