History of the Bitcoin Trend
In previous posts it has become clear that the bitcoin trend is well established in a 4 year cycle. The last cycle that came to its inevitable end in the beginning of 2022 was the second well behaved trajectory over a 4 year period. We can however not ignore the fact that with each passing cycle there are a much bigger potential for manipulation as the cartel of the world gain more funds in this space to sway the market to deliver them more profits. The last cycle was nothing different and we saw 5 major events of manipulation as follows:
- Hash was dump (BSH and BSV hashing it out for the BSH ticker, started November 2018)
- The Tether pump (When Tether printed and pumped the market to recover some of their losses they sustained in a terrible deal, started May 2019)
- The Covid hoax dump (During which all markets were dumped at the onset of the Covid plandemic so the scum of this earth could buy up cheap before the pump that would follow, started March 2020)
- The pre pump (Where the cartel pumped the market early to fool everyone into thinking that we were in the golden bull run, started December 2020)
- Cut the head off the bull (Where the cartel started dumping the market to cut the head off the bull run to fool most people into thinking that we would still go higher only to go into the long 2 year bear market on a back foot, started October 2021)
All the events explained above is shown in the graph.
In order to demonstrate why we talk about these events as major manipulation events one need to overlay it on the cycle that preceded it as shown in the graph below (Blue line is the fist well defined cycle and the orange line is the second cycle). Apart from very small deviations the blue line (the first well defined cycle) will probably remain the best indication of the trend in the cycles to come. It was at a time with very little interest compared to our current situation and the price rarely ventured to far from what is almost a perfect parabola. Considering our manipulation events as listed above it is clear how the cartel either pumped or dumped the price in order to fool people and buy in at a cheaper or sell it at a higher price.
Our Current Cycle
We are currently in our 3rd well defined cycle and it is evident that we are on the same trend line again. There may be adjustments required once we reach the halfway mark but for the most part we have managed to grab the essential points to gage what the price action would look like in the coming 3 years. In the previous section we described the 5 major manipulation events and one particular event deserves a closer look because it will have a massive impact on this cycles grabbing points. We were able to accurately pin the previous cycle to specific grabbing points mainly because the cartel did not have a major manipulation event on critical times which is the start (or end) of the cycle and the middle of the cycle. We had a fairly good idea that the cycle would end at a price high of between US$100k and US$200k (refer to the bull top in the previous image, orange and blue intercept) but the final major manipulation event for this cycle cut off the top of the bull run and made everyone think our max was supposed to be US$70k. Nothing can be further from the truth. As this cycle will show everyone again that if we pin the grabbing points to where they were supposed to be (without the major manipulation events) the cycle price action will stay on the trendline again. I have updated the current trendline with both the second and first well defined trendline as an overlay. The first graph (Graph No 1) below therefore show the following:
- Grey line is the 1st cycle (Days on x-axis and price on secondary y-axis)
- Blue line is the 3rd cycle or the cycle we are currently in (Days on x-axis and price on primary y-axis)
The second graph (Graph No 2) below is the current price action with the second well defined cycle as overlay and show the following:
- Orange line is the 2st cycle (Days on x-axis and price on secondary y-axis)
- Blue line is the 3rd cycle or the cycle we are currently in (Days on x-axis and price on primary y-axis)
Concluding remarks
We still have some way to go before the midway point of this cycle but from the updated graphs above is is clear that we will trade on the bitcoin trend again this cycle. Some comments on the graphs as follows:
Graph No 1:
- The same pattern has followed at the start of the current cycle as the second well defined cycle. It seems that every passing cycle we have a steeper dip to the bottom of the curve after the bubble pop. The first well defined cycle has been the only cycle thus far where price action has tend to be higher than fair price (price above the trendline for long periods of time).
- Based on our current grabbing points it would appear that the bottom for this cycle on a fair price value would be US$20k with approximately 200 days or 6.5 months left before we reach the halfway point for this cycle.
- What seems to be much more unrealistic for this cycle is the final predicted bull top. Based on this trend it would appear that this cycle bubble will pop just above US$2mil. We have however seen in the past the the cartel is able to manipulate the price down by more than 50% which would mean that they would be able to restrict the price to below US$1mil if they deem it most profitable.
Graph No 2
- Accept for some minor price deviations, which might just be corrected once we receive more data, the current price action measures fairly well against the previous cycle (orange line in Graph No 2. We even show signs of the 1 manipulation event with dumping taking place on almost exactly the same time. Previously this was due to the Hash wars and this cycle it is due to the FTT scandal.
- Based on our current grabbing points it would appear that the bottom for this cycle on a fair price value would be US$10k with approximately 200 days or 6.5 months left before we reach the halfway point for this cycle. It is again interesting to note that had there been no manipulation event in the previous cycle the graph would have produced a cycle bottom in the high US20k which is almost exactly the same prediction we get from Graph No 1.
- Again the predicted bull top for Graph No 2 seems to be unrealistic bad based on what we have learnt from the bitcoin trend it seems to be inevitable that the price of bitcoin will always return to the trend (for evidence of this feel free to read my previous posts on Bitcoin). We will however be the first page to update our followers if the trend seem to have broken.
Based on the analysis of the previous two cycles it seems that this cycles bottom will be between US$10-US$20k depending on the power the cartel accumulated to dump the price. Most exciting, is the graphs showing that the coming cycle high will be anywhere between US$700k-US$2mil. If this trend is correct Bitcoin would have completely destroyed our understanding of an assets value increase over time but we must always keep in mind that there has never quite been anything like Bitcoin. If in fact we fall way short of this top obviously I will stop writing these posts and move back into my moms basement (fingers crossed, it's been going well so far) - :-)
For everyone that lost money on FTT please consider to stop gambling with your life savings and stick to BTC. If you need a guide on a good start here are some of our videos:
ZOOM 1 - THE BASICS FOR BITCOIN TRANSACTIONS - Q & A ADDED
ZOOM 2 - BITCOIN MANAGEMENT (WALLETS)
ZOOM 3 - BITCOIN MANAGEMENT (TRANSACTIONS)
ZOOM 4 - BITCOIN-HARDWARE-WALLETS-&-NODES
ZOOM 6 - BITCOIN-THE-BEGINNING
ZOOM 7 - BITCOIN-AND-SHITCOINS
ZOOM 8 - BITCOIN-THE-DAILY-ROUTINE
ZOOM 9 - BITCOIN-BLUEWALLET-RECAP
Darthcoin's Info
The man in the interview above me is Darthcoin who is extremely helpful and a very goodhearted man. He has a website where he explains Bitcoin and also cover a lot of other topics. Check him out here:
- His website: https://www.cipix.eu/library/
- His telegram: https://t.me/btcguides