As many of you have already noticed, the market is doing very well today. We see a sea of green numbers across the board.
Ethereum and Litecoin have returned to the values that I most recently bought in at... so that's always nice to get back into the green.
Bitcoin SV has spiked out of control with over 90% gains, flipping Bitcoin Cash and taking the number 4 spot on the market cap. A lot of people are saying this is due to the rumor that Craig Wright has acquired "Tulip Trust" keys that give him access to a portion of Bitcoin's 1M coin premine (presumably owned by Satoshi Nakamoto himself).
I am very highly skeptical of this development. I think Craig Wright is a complete douchebag and there's no way he could possibly be Nakamoto. Even if it is quite evident he's been a big part of the Bitcoin movement since inception, Nakamoto does not want to be known, and I'm sure the real Satoshi enjoys all the people who claim to be him, as that takes the heat off his own back.
This "Tulip Trust" also seems highly dubious. Who create's the world's first currency controlled by no central authority... and then locks the premine away to be safeguarded by some other entity? The whole situation doesn't really make any logical sense. You don't create a currency designed to make everyone their own bank and then put other people in charge of safeguarding your creation. Craig Wright is a known liar, time and time again, and he is simply giving the court the run around yet again.
If any of those premined coins get moved, even a single penny, it will be huge news, and the price and faith of Bitcoin can only go down in that event. No one wants those coins to go anywhere.
It is my hope that the real Satoshi will wait for the legacy economy to implode in on itself as all corrupt man-run institutions have in the past. If the Bitcoin network continues to double in value every year this won't take long. In the event of exponential doubling, the market cap will go x1000 every 10 years and x1M every 20 years.
This means in as little as 10 years the market cap of Bitcoin could easily be 160 trillion dollars, which is basically twice as much liquid USD in circulation and 20 times higher than the market cap for gold. If the doubling trend continues, it won't take long for Bitcoin to gobble up the entire legacy economy. I think this is highly possible... even probable, considering how corrupt the world economy is. The value of a currency that can't be manipulated by those in power is absolutely essential for humanity to scale up out of the inverted pyramid era.
In any case, if/when this happens, I hope that's when the real Satoshi dumps all his coins and funds the projects he deems to be superior to Bitcoin. Can you imagine what would happen to all the old money of the legacy economy if this occurred? Poof! Gone. The Wicked Witch is dead.
Barring all this 'wild' speculation. We see once again that the market is getting greedy. We have to assume that the halving event of mid May is starting to get priced in right now. The market is getting 'smarter' (aka more greedy). This price-in is starting 4 months prior to the halving event, but then again if we look at the Bakkt institutional pump/dump that was also starting to get priced in 4 months prior. This may be the new standard.
Unlike the Bakkt pump/dump, which had relatively zero gain for the actual network as a whole, the Bitcoin halving does have the substance to eventually back up the value being attributed to it. With the Bakkt pump/dump, we essentially had to wait 6 months for the markets to correct and recover because there was nothing there. Hopefully it takes a bit less time with an event that actually has value. Traditionally it takes less than 2 months after the halving to bottom out and begin the meteoric rise over the next 12-18 months. This might leave us in a position to capitalize on a late summer bull run.
A late summer bull run would be exceptionally nice for Litecoin, as Litecoin's halving occurred last summer. That means it's possible that both of these fundamental waves of deflationary value could swell into quite an epic peak for Litecoin around the July/August time period. I've made quite a big bet to this effect. Hopefully it works out.
2020
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6933 | $7467 | $8000 | $8533 | $9067 | $9600 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10133 | $10667 | $11200 | $11733 | $12267 | $12800 |
Keep your eye on the prize.
This is what we need to remember: Bitcoin doubling in value is a legendary occurrence. To expect more than exponential doubling is just outright greedy and foolish. We need to instead capitalize on other people's foolishness.
Bitcoin is currently overpriced, but not by much... yet. We see that given the doubling metric the value of Bitcoin should be around $7000 by the end of the month. At the end of March it should only be $8000. However, I'm expecting this pump and dump to push it much much higher than that. Perhaps even to all time highs... giving it about six weeks to crash back down to the 10k level in late June.
I suppose I'll make that my official prediction. $20k at the end of March, $10k at the end of June. Sounds good to me.
Steem?
Unfortunately Steem is not looking great. If history repeats we won't make many gains during the pump but during the dump we'll get destroyed. There's a real possibility here for Steem to make all time lows... sad... unless you're looking to buy of course.
I'm not the powering down type. I'm pretty much half way to Orca and I'm pretty happy with that at the moment. I won't be putting more money into Steem unless my other bets do really well and Steem does indeed hit all time lows. I think we might have to wait until the end of 2021 to really make back all those gains. We've all seen how the liquidity issues of this platform can swing in both directions. Once Bitcoin is spiking out of control again (far above $20k) I imagine Steem will certainly be along for the ride. Our market cap is so tiny and there will be a bunch of new-money millionaires looking to diversify their investments. Until then I'll keep on posting and trying to get back into my programming grove.