Is there a current fair price for Bitcoin? I'm not talking about a current market value. I'm talking about the point at which the community would ultimately race in and purchase. For example, if BTC hit $100, would everyone rush in to buy? Almost certainly everyone would likely rush in and take out second mortgages. However, what if prices continued to slide and slowly got down to that level?
Now, I'm not making any sort of claim or prediction about the prices getting there (although I do think that very long term, BTC will in fact fail), but I'm talking about fair prices for things. Most of these cryptos are at prices that they saw prior to the main crypto rally and boom. Many cryptos have pulled back up to 25-30x the values of the high. Bitcoin itself has pulled back about 6, so there's a good reason to believe we could keep going? If that's the case, I am super excited for how cheap some of these other cryptos will get! Typically, we see prices get to levels they were at prior to the move. For example, Bitcoin went up to $1,200 in the BTC boom in 2013. The prices recovered to that level a few years after and the cycle started again.
Now, if we analyze that move from 2013, btc pulled back the same 6 times that we're seeing now. It hit a low just under $200, and bounced back.
Support on that cycle was found as we expected...along the resistance from the previous bounce earlier in 2013 during the Cyprus crisis.
Coincidentally, that support also correlated with the weekly RSI being into the oversold level at around 27-28. Right now, we're in the upper 29's, so it's not a perfect repeat yet.
One thing that's been very different though is that we had a lot of late and drawn out support at the $6,000 level. Since we had this, I'm not sure what potential level there's likelihood of getting down to. The markets to move in correlation with sentiment. The sentiment on the first move wasn't as drastic as this rally we just saw. So, that same sentiment will also push the market down to positions of greater size.
Right now, we have a big support at $2,975. Below that is $1,800 and $1,360. Basically, I'm still looking at one of these to be the level which I'm targeting as being a much longer entry point.