I agree with your analysis, guy I follow Prezes, he's been talking about this retracement to previous high from the 2013 since basically even before the last bubble burst.

If indeed price goes above your $12,000 it's going to be a difficult one and it'll will trick a lot of people into a trap. At the moment I'm more bearish and I can't see the price going that high, BTC is so weak and also these recent altcoin price gain "detachment" from bitcoin is quite interesting.