Analysis of past week:
Last week for the first time in some while the network has been optimistic. Not decisively so, but significantly better than the weeks before. And in exactly this week we have seen massive upwards price movements. Maybe a coincidence, or maybe the network did find some patters and did sense a price movement might be coming. We will never know, but the network strategy for past week was optimal.
I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as
Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 15290.90$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 5198.90$ (up 29.3% !!!)
Network strategy: 5587.16$ (up 29.3%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$
The fiat strategy is up since the documented time has been a bear market. The neural network has gotten some edge above holding bitcoin.
Forecast:
Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.
After the past week the network has again become more positive. It is not expecting the rise to run out of steam soon and predicts anther week of gains. However, the network still expects a pullback in the coming month, going down to the 4500$ levels and potentially retesting the 4200$ area.
The network is positive on btc. For the coming week I am holding bitcoin over fiat.
This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!